Emiliano Grillo
For the 3M Open this week, most OAD players are going to pick the red-hot Chris Gotterup or Sam Burns, if the latter is still available. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Gotterup and Burns are tied for the best odds to win the 3M Open at +1800.
While these two are great picks, it is time for me to play contrarian, as I rank 15th of 40 players in my OAD pool and there is only four events remaining to make picks. Striking gold with a low-owned pick would be huge for me to make a late push in my OAD pool, which brings me to Emiliano Grillo. With Gotterup and Burns gaining most of the attention and other players in this field who are much more well known than Grillo, the professional out of Argentina is naturally going to be a very low-owned pick. In fact, there is a strong chance that I am the only person in my OAD pool that picks Grillo this week and he has real winning upside at TPC Twin Cities.
At this par 71, Grillo has finished T-3, MC, runner-up, T-10 and T-24, in that order. The 32-year-old shot a 7-under 64 in his first start at TPC Twin Cities in 2020 and he has carded a 6-under 65 at this venue three times. Grillo is gaining an outstanding 1.93 strokes per round at TPC Twin Cities, which ranks fifth among all the players in this week’s field that have competed at TPC Twin Cities more than once.
Grillo knows TPC Twin Cities like the back of his hand and while he is coming off a missed cut at the Barracuda Championship, his overall form is stellar. Grillo has made 12 of his last 14 cuts and seven of these finishes have been top-25 results. The No. 103 ranked player in the world was just extremely close to winning at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago, when he lost to Brian Campbell in a playoff. This event notably came at another TPC venue in TPC Deere Run and Grillo has contended at TPC courses numerous times throughout his career.
Grillo ranks third in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds and his irons have been his backbone. The veteran ranks eighth in SG APP during this time, setting him up perfectly for his return to TPC Twin Cities, as four of the last five winners at this course have finished the event top-eight in SG APP. Grillo just needs to have an efficient showing with his flat stick to pair with his terrific ball-striking to contend, which is absolutely a strong possibility at TPC Twin Cities.
This track is home to bentgrass putting surfaces and Grillo knows these greens very well, as he has gained over 3.0 strokes putting in each of his last three starts at TPC Twin Cities. Among the players in this field, Grillo ranks eighth in total strokes gained at courses that present bentgrass greens this season and both of his wins on the PGA TOUR notably have come at tracks that feature bentgrass putting surfaces.
Past One and Done Tournament Results
The Sony Open: Maverick McNealy (T45)
The American Express: Justin Thomas (second)
The Farmers Insurance Open: Ludvig Aberg (T42)
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Collin Morikawa (T17)
WM Phoenix Open: Hideki Matsuyama (T25)
Genesis Invitational: Taylor Pendrith (T50)
Mexico Open at Vidanta: Patrick Rodgers: (T25)
Cognizant Classic: Shane Lowry (T11)
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley (first)
THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka (T14)
The Valspar Championship: Tommy Fleetwood (T16)
The Texas Children’s Houston Open: Tony Finau (T32)
Valero Texas Open: Corey Conners (T18)
The Masters: Scottie Scheffler (fourth)
RBC Heritage: Jason Day (T49)
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Jordan Spieth (fourth)
The Truist Championship: Viktor Hovland (T54)
PGA Championship: Rory McIlroy (T47)
Charles Schwab Challenge: Daniel Berger (MC)
The Memorial Tournament: Patrick Cantlay (T12)
RBC Canadian Open: Sam Burns (second)
U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau (MC)
The Travelers Championship: Xander Schauffele (T61)
Rocket Classic: Cameron Young (T46)
John Deere Classic: Ben Griffin (MC)
Genesis Scottish Open: Robert MacIntyre (T65)
Open Championship: Jon Rahm (T34)
