Hideki Matsuyama
While deploying Scottie Scheffler is a totally viable move this week, given he is the clear favorite in this top-heavy field and won twice at TPC Scottsdale, the WM Phoenix Open only presents the 19th-largest purse of the season and saving Scheffler for a more lucrative event is a wise move with this only being his second start of the season.
This brings me to Matsuyama, who just like Scheffler, has won twice at TPC Scottsdale. Matsuyama has produced four top-five finishes in 10 starts at the famous desert track and he is gaining 2.01 strokes per round at TPC Scottsdale, which ranks third of the players in this week’s field that have competed at the par 71 more than once.
Coming off a lackluster T-48 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, Matsuyama shouldn’t be a popular choice in your OAD pool. Plus, we shouldn’t be worried after this outing, as the former Masters champion has never fared well at Pebble Beach and Matsuyama has displayed a strong ability to bounce back after a mediocre showing. The last two times the 32-year-old has finished outside the top 40, Matsuyama has gone on to win by multiple strokes in his next start, with these victories coming recently at the St. Jude Championship in August and the Sentry four weeks ago.
His long-term form is also very strong. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, Matsuyama ranks second in SGT2G and fifth in SG APP. The 11-time PGA TOUR winner also ranks fifth in par four efficiency during this time, setting him up perfectly for his return to TPC Scottsdale, where four of the last five winners have led their fields in par four efficiency. Matsuyama carries the third-best odds to win the WM Phoenix Open on DraftKings Sportsbook and shouldn’t disappoint this week.
Past One and Done Tournament Results
The Sony Open: Maverick McNealy (T-45)
The American Express: Justin Thomas (second)
The Farmers Insurance Open: Ludvig Aberg (T42)
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Collin Morikawa (T17)
