First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys on TNF

Week 5 is upon us, and it brings a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers.

This season hasn’t gone exactly to plan for Dallas, but things could always be worse — you could be Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are winless through four contests, and if an 8.5-point spread is any indication, that losing streak might keep on going in the immediate future. It doesn’t help when your starting QB is in street clothes, and that’ll once again be the case for Baker Mayfield (thumb).

That said, we don’t really care about the final score in this article. We just care about the first score. Let’s break down the first touchdown scorer market on the DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple of picks.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys First Touchdown Scorer Odds

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys First Touchdown Scorer Picks

Javonte Williams First TD Scorer (+370)

I’m going to buck my usual format and give two first touchdown picks for the Cowboys on Thursday. A popular lean and a long shot. It just makes sense given that the Buccaneers currently rank 31st in the NFL in offensive touchdowns per game (1.5) and are only averaging 16.3 points per contest over the last three weeks. Obviously, Javonte Williams is not the long shot, but it’s simply difficult to ignore the role he plays for Dallas when the team is in leverage scoring positions on the field. Heck, Williams’ role is massive anywhere. The RB enters Week 5 tied for the fourth-most touchdowns in the league (6) and in the top 10 in touches (77). He’s also one of seven running backs who is seeing at least 70% of their team’s red zone rushing attempts. Tampa has one of the most stout running defenses in the NFL, but Williams’ gigantic touchdown expectancy outweighs the non-ideal matchup.

Jake Ferguson First TD Scorer (+1200)

I wouldn’t say the Cowboys’ offense is heliocentric, as there’s more than one Sun in Jerry Jones’ galaxy, but the dispersion of opportunities is quite limited. In fact, through four games, three skill players account for 92.9% of Dallas’ 14 touchdowns: Javonte Williams (+370), CeeDee Lamb (+550) and Jake Ferguson. The tight end has easily the longest first touchdown scorer odds among that trio, so let’s take a flier on him. Ferguson’s 21.1% target share in the red zone sits second to only the aforementioned Lamb among Cowboys pass catchers, while no Dallas player has more receiving touchdowns going back to the beginning of last season (11). This is a nice matchup, as well. The Buccaneers are allowing the eighth-most opponent TE targets per contest (8.3) and they’ve conceded a tight end touchdown in three of their four games so far.