Buccaneers at Cowboys NFL Player Prop Bets and Picks for Thursday Night Football

Opening up the Week 5 NFL slate, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Dallas Cowboys.

This is a pivotal matchup for each NFC opponent. The Dallas Cowboys enter with a 2-2 record, trailing the New York Giants for the top spot in the NFC East. Even worse, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have slipped to 0-4 and fallen to last place in the NFC South. With Baker Mayfield remaining sidelined due to his dislocated thumb, Tampa Bay is starting to worry.

Looking at the odds for the Thursday Night matchup, the Cowboys enter as 8.5-point home favorites with -470 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers hold +360 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 47.5 points.

But there are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond completely betting one side. Let’s take a look at my top three favorite player props for the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Buccaneers at Cowboys NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football

Jalon Daniels Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

With Mayfield remaining on the sideline, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will be making the second start of his NFL career. Tampa Bay electing to hand the backup quarterback job to Daniels, after veteran Jake Browning was widely expected to take this role, is a vote of confidence in itself. The Kansas product made his first start last week, completing 19 of his 27 pass attempts for 148 passing yards, one touchdown, and a pair of interceptions in the 17-14 loss to the Packers.

The biggest thing that kept Daniels off draft boards this past offseason was concerns over his ability with his arm. He had his best season last year at Kansas, throwing for 2,531 yards, 22 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. But the year before, he tallied just 14 passing touchdowns to 12 interceptions. One thing that remained consistent in his skillset was his ability with his legs. Daniels rushed for 400+ yards on the ground in back-to-back years and three straight years that he played 9+ games at the collegiate level.

This showed face in his first NFL start, with Daniels rushing for 55 yards on just eight rushing attempts. This was against a Packers team that had only allowed 23 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks through the first three weeks. Dallas was hopeful to take a major step forward this season defensively, but is ranked 28th in points allowed and 30th in total yards conceded thus far. They were gashed for 54, 72, and 50 yards on the ground by Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson already this season. Daniels’ ability with his legs sometimes becomes his safety blanket in his attack, and I expect this to remain the case in this matchup. Count on Daniels taking the yards whenever they are there and for the new Buccaneers’ starting quarterback to eclipse 44.5 rushing yards for the second straight week.

Chris Godwin Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

While Mike Evans was the headline wide receiver for the past 12 years and Emeka Egbuka has established himself as the latest top option, don’t let Chris Godwin get fully lost in the shuffle. Godwin was limited by injuries over the past two years, but recorded 1,000+ yards in three consecutive seasons before this and four of the previous five. Through the opening four games, the former Pro Bowler has tallied 16 receptions for 142 yards. He has posted receiving totals of 40, 46, 25, and 31 through the opening four weeks.

This does not live up to the typical standard for the Buccaneers’ pass-catcher, but this is matchup is a potential launch point against a vulnerable defense. Dallas ranks 24th in opponents’ receiving yards allowed, 26th in opponents’ passing touchdowns, and dead last in net yards per pass attempt. In Godwin’s lone game alongside Daniels, he led the team with seven targets and pulled in six receptions for 31 yards against a much stronger Packers’ defense.

28.5 is a low enough bar that I am willing to back Godwin comfortably in this matchup, even without Mayfield. The Cowboys are considerable favorites for a reason, and I expect the Buccaneers to be playing from behind. This plays to more of a pass-first game script and will lead to more chances for Godwin through the air. Even in his later years, he has some big play pop and could clear this bar in just one reception. But Daniels targeting Godwin at the highest rate last week is notable, especially with the favorable defense matchup for the entire Buccaneers’ attack. He has still cleared this bar in three of his four games this season, and expect him to build off this for the second straight game alongside Daniels. 

Dak Prescott to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+176)

There are fair conversations about the defense, but Dak Prescott deserves credit for the level he has performed so far this season. The Cowboys’ starting quarterback has completed 105 of his 150 pass attempts for 1,065 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and an interception. Prescott is coming off back-to-back games with just one passing score, but he threw for four passing touchdowns against the Commanders and had two in the opener against the Giants. 

The identity for this Cowboys team is scoring at a high rate. They rank second in the NFL in scoring at 30.5 points per game, have tallied 20+ points in all four games, and recorded 31+ points in three of the four games. Javonte Williams has five rushing scores in four games, with KaVontae Turpin adding a rushing touchdown of his own. But don’t expect the ground game to be as effective in this matchup with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed, but 14th in passing touchdowns conceded.

Prescott is more than capable of punching the ball into the end zone through the air and will look to take advantage in this matchup. CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson are each dangerous options through the air in the red zone, and Williams has found his way into the end zone through the air this year as well. The standard passing touchdown prop for Prescott is set at 1.5, with the over favored at -218 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. While I am a believer in this line, this is a matchup where Dallas should be expected to put plenty of points on the board. If the Cowboys still view themselves as the legitimate playoff contender, this is a chance to beat up on a vulnerable opponent and make a statement. Count on Prescott being at the center of this, prepared to air it out at a high rate this Thursday night.