George Pickens Receiving Yards Pick for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers

The Cowboys are hosting the Buccaneers for Week’s 5 edition of Thursday Night Football. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is favored by 8.5 points and this game carries a total of 47.5 points.

Let’s dive into the top George Pickens prop bet for Thursday’s matchup.

George Pickens Best Receiving Yards Prop Bet vs. Buccaneers

George Pickens Under 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

George Pickens has taken a big step backwards this season. The wideout is averaging 56.1 receiving yards per game after averaging 84.1 last season. Pickens averaged an elite 2.5 YPPR last season, but that number is also down to 1.7 yards this season. Moreover, his usage has decreased, as Pickens is handling an 18% target share after seeing a 21% rate a year ago.

Pickens has fallen short of 63.5 yards in half of his games, and this isn’t an appealing matchup for him vs. the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is easier to pass against than to run on — Tampa Bay is allowing the second-fewest yards per rush (3.2), but the 17th-most yards per pass (6.6) — but the Buccaneers give up most of their passing yardage to tight ends and running backs, not receivers.

Tampa is giving up the second-fewest catches (35) and yards (423) to the position. Conversely, the Buccaneers rank top-seven in receptions and yards allowed to both tight ends and running backs. The Buccaneers are giving up passing plays of 20+ yards at the ninth-lowest rate in the league, which doesn’t bode well for a deep threat like Pickens, who relies on long catches for a good chunk of his production.

Many are hoping George Pickens finally has his breakout game tonight, but this just isn’t an ideal matchup for him. Look for him to underwhelm yardage wise.