Chris Godwin Receiving Prop Pick for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

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Chris Godwin receptions pick vs. Cowboys

Godwin has been far from the type of player we’ve seen in past years to start the NFL season. Through three weeks with Baker Mayfield at quarterback for the Buccaneers, he hadn’t exceeded four receptions, four targets or 46 receiving yards in a single game.

Mayfield went down with an injury late in Tampa’s Week 3 loss to the Vikings, and was replaced with rookie Jalon Daniels. The undrafted rookie impressed the Bucs enough to win the QB2 job, but he was nothing special in his first NFL start on Sunday against the Packers. Daniels was 19-of-27 for 148 passing yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

However, Godwin was the go-to-guy in the passing game. Not because he was making big plays downfield, but because he gave the rookie a security blanket in the short passing game. Godwin was bumped up to seven targets on Sunday, catching six of them for 31 yards. Clearly not a ton of damage, averaging just 5.2 yards per reception.

But operating out of the slot and giving his rookie QB an easy target proved to be a big piece of this offense. With Daniels now making his first NFL road start against a cushy Dallas defense, expect him to be lookin to Godwin as a safe option once again. Godwin primarily operates out of the slot, and I expect those short and safe throws to be there once again on Thursday night.

Daniels completed 85.7% of his passes to Godwin on Sunday against Green Bay. On this rest of his attempts, Daniels completed just 65% of his passes. While the yards might not be there, Godwin’s touches should be. He’s running routs that make it easy to put the ball in his hands, and on a short week on the road, I expect the rookie to go right back to what was working in his first NFL game.

Game script also sets up nicely for Tampa to keep throwing the ball, priced as 8.5-point underdogs on the road. I’ll back Godwin over a modest receptions prop on TNF in Dallas.

NFL Pick: Chris Godwin OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125)

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