In the American League, almost everyone has a chance at securing a wild card spot. No two teams are a better example of this than the Orioles (47-51) and Astros (47-52). Despite their sub-.500 records, these clubs are within 2.5 games of a postseason berth. That makes Saturday’s showdown a pivotal game for each side. After a narrow 3-2 Baltimore win last night, can Houston exact some revenge this afternoon?
The Astros are favorites (-110) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Baltimore and Houston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Astros pick, best bet today
- Orioles ML (-109): To make things simple, this is a fade of Arrighetti. He’s been outright bad for multiple weeks, and his propensity for handing out walks doesn’t bode well against a disciplined Orioles lineup. As for Baltimore, Rogers looks more like the ace fans fell in love with last season. He should avoid getting shelled against a top-heavy Astros offense.
Orioles vs. Astros prediction, preview
If the Orioles are going to make a second half push, it’ll likely require some terrific starts from Trevor Rogers. Following a fantastic 2025 campaign, the southpaw has struggled for most of this season. Through 90.0 innings pitched (17 starts), he’s delivered a 4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 69 strikeouts (6.9 K/9). However, the veteran has looked like an ace over the last few weeks. During his last seven outings, Rogers has recorded a 1.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
Keeping Houston’s offense in check could prove difficult for the O’s tonight. Superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez is the straw that stirs the drink in Space City. This season, the Cuban is slashing .321/.431/.636 to go with an American League-best 31 home runs and 71 RBIs. However, the rest of this lineup isn’t nearly as dangerous. Just three other Astros regulars (Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker) have a wRC+ above 100. In addition, Houston has a below-average .706 OPS against left-handed pitching. If Baltimore keeps Alvarez in check, runs could be hard to come by for the home team.
On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti will toe the slab for the ‘Stros. After a terrific first few months, the right-hander has begun to spiral. Over his previous four appearances, the 26-year-old is on the hook for a 10.89 ERA. To be fair, Arrighetti has been much better at home (3.22 ERA) than he has been on the road (5.52 ERA). However, he ranks within the bottom 15th percentile in xERA (5.20), chase rate (26.8%) and walk rate (12.4%). None of those numbers inspire much confidence, especially when facing an above-average lineup.
The Orioles haven’t been world-beaters at the plate, but they aren’t pushovers either. The team is 12th in runs scored (450), 13th in home runs (118) and 14th in slugging percentage (.400). Leading the way has been offseason pickup Pete Alonso. Through 98 games, the first baseman is slashing .250/.345/.470 to go with 21 homers and 66 RBIs. He’s joined by fellow standouts Taylor Ward (122 wRC+) and Adley Rutschman (116 wRC+). As a unit, Baltimore is averaging the fourth-most walks per game in baseball (3.83). That level of patience pay major dividends against a hurler with erratic command such as Arrighetti.
Best Bet: Orioles ML (-109)
At this point, it feels like Arrighetti is still coasting off of a dominant first few weeks. His peripherals are poor at best, highlighted by a knack for handing out walks. An experienced Baltimore lineup should find a way to generate plenty of traffic on the base paths tonight. As for Rogers, he comes into this one with plenty of momentum. So long as he avoids giving Alvarez any pitches to hit, the lefty is set up nicely on Saturday.
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