One of the most underrated games of this Sunday slate kicks off at 1 p.m. ET in Atlanta. The Falcons are just 2-4 and haven’t had a particularly strong start to the campaign, but they do bring some degree of upside. They face quite the challenge this week in the undefeated San Francisco 49ers, who have overcome injuries thus far but may not be totally unbeatable. Might this be the game that brings them down a rung?
Read on for a full betting preview, prediction and pick for 49ers vs. Falcons in NFL Week 7.
49ers vs. Falcons prediction, preview
The lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Niners have outright dominated in most weeks. San Francisco averages 29.5 PPG on offense, third most of any team, while the defense sits fourth in scoring allowed at just 18.3 PPG. This group seemingly has it all. The attack paces the league in EPA/play with top-six marks on a per-dropback and per-rush basis. Brock Purdy is playing like the MVP with 1,460 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions, picking up one more score as a runner. Christian McCaffrey has 540 scrimmage yards and seven total touchdowns, making waves as a two-way threat out of the backfield. George Kittle doesn’t even look like he ruptured an Achilles last season, amassing 26 catches for 337 yards and five scores. Defensively, the 49ers have a respectable 15 sacks and rank sixth in EPA/play, ninth in success rate and first in explosive rate allowed. The only negative for this team? The injuries have mounted, as per usual – Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and more notable names are all out. Still, they’ve overcome the circumstances thus far and may continue to do so moving forward.
The Falcons dug themselves into a hole early in the campaign with losses in the opening two games, and despite a glimmer of hope when Michael Penix Jr. returned under center in Week 3, they’ve gone just 2-2 since then and are 2-4 overall. What we know about this team is that the offense will likely score some points, especially with the talented playmakers on that side of the ball. Bijan Robinson remains perhaps the best halfback in football with an NFL-best 785 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns, even coming off a week in which he saw few opportunities compared to his usual workload. Drake London has caught 31 passes for 550 yards, though he’s been held without a touchdown thus far. Kyle Pitts started slow but now has five grabs in back-to-back games, scoring three times with 102 receiving yards over this span. Overall, the offense averages a respectable 23.7 PPG, but the defense has let the team down. The other side of the ball is allowing 25.5 PPG – 23rd in the league – and the team has given up 30+ points three times in six games. Despite sitting 12th in EPA/play allowed and second in pressure rate, this D is yet to really hold up its end of the bargain.
49ers vs. Falcons pick, best bet
As of the time of this article’s writing, DraftKings Sportsbook lists the 49ers as a -2.5 favorite on the road with -148 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Falcons are a +124 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 49.5 combined points.
These offenses are more than capable of scoring in a hurry, but I lean toward the under on 49.5 combined points in this matchup. It’s not that I don’t like the talent by any means, and I don’t necessarily think we’ll see a truly low-scoring outcome. They could easily flirt with this line, but I do believe the defenses will do just enough for the total to remain under. After all, this is the second-highest total of the Week 7 slate behind only Packers/Lions.
The reason I lean this way is rather simple. The 49ers are down several receivers and won’t have Evans, who has clearly made their offense much better when on the field in his first year with the team. His absence hurts the outlook by a decent margin, though Purdy and his remaining weapons are obviously still excellent. What I’m really paying attention to is the success rate and explosive rate that both of these defenses give up. Atlanta is the lesser of these units, but sits 12th in success rate and seventh in explosive rate allowed. And as mentioned earlier, the San Francisco defense sits ninth in success rate and first in explosive rate allowed. Why do those things matter?
Not only are both of these defensive units pretty good on a down-to-down basis, but they’re also quite great at limiting big plays. Now, they face offenses that thrive on those explosives – the Falcons’ offense actually clocks in at 10th in explosive rate, while the 49ers are first in success rate and fourth in explosive rate. Between Evans’ absence and the way the defenses prevent chunk gains, this total should stay under the lofty 49.5 mark.
