Anything can happen in the NFC South, but the Carolina Panthers have the makings of a division favorite already. Their offense is surging, and on Sunday, they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have struggled mightily this season. However, the visitors are set to get their quarterback into the fold again following an injury, so could we see a competitive game after all?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Buccaneers vs. Panthers in NFL Week 7.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction, preview
At a glance, the Buccaneers look like one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’re just 1-5, and frankly, there’s little in the numbers that suggests they may turn this thing around. The good news is that an offense that ranks 25th with 19.8 PPG is expected to get Baker Mayfield (questionable, thumb) back from injury after he missed multiple weeks, but the bad news is that the recently-extended gunslinger looked flat-out bad before his absence. He amassed 615 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 65 rushing yards and a score, but he also ranks 35th among the 35 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA/dropback and pressure-to-sack rate this season. This isn’t a great week for him to bounce back, either, seeing as that top wideout Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot) has been ruled out. That leaves Chris Godwin (23 REC, 216 YDS) as the top receiving option alongside Cade Otton and rookie Ted Hurst. Bucky Irving has been the lone bright spot with 452 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns in addition to his receiving usage, but the passing game probably won’t look too hot this week. While the Bucs are seemingly close to elite in terms of defensive efficiency – they’re fourth in EPA/play allowed, plus sixth in success rate and explosive rate allowed – their 23.0 PPG allowed slots in at 17th in the league.
The Panthers are the inverse, in a way. They hold a 3-2 record and are first in the NFC South, but they’re a good deal better than the record when it comes to their offense. Carolina ranks fourth in scoring with 29.2 PPG, a testament to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik after he took over play-calling duties prior to the season. His changes – namely a pass-happy approach with the third-highest PROE – has perhaps revived Bryce Young’s upside as a former No. 1 selection. The quarterback has racked up 1,549 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions across five games, also adding one more score with his legs. His aggressiveness has truly stood out in a passing attack consolidated around Tetairoa McMillan (32 REC, 471 YDS, 2 TD) and Jalen Coker (24 REC, 319 YDS, 2 TD), the latter of whom is in the midst of a true breakout. It helps that Chuba Hubbard has produced in a workhorse role, amassing 511 scrimmage yards with six total touchdowns. The Panthers’ defense does leave much to be desired with 24.6 PPG allowed, which falls 21st, but as long as the offense keeps scoring, it may not matter.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Panthers as a -3 favorite at home with -155 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Buccaneers are a +130 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 44.5 combined points.
The Bucs’ path to a win revolves around Irving seeing plenty of usage on the ground to take advantage of a Carolina defense that falls 28th in EPA/rush allowed. If Tampa Bay can control the ball and keep it out of Young’s hands, then the visitors stand a chance. That also means that Mayfield will have to protect the football without turning it over, and frankly, that may be easier said than done after the poor start to the season that he put on film.
The Buccaneers have been solid against the pass this season, only allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for more than 250 yards one time in six games. The exception was Dak Prescott in Week 5, but even the longtime veteran hasn’t been as good as Young this year. The Panthers’ passing attack is one of the league’s best and the quarterback ranks eighth in EPA/dropback while throwing for a minimum of 281 yards in every game so far; he’s also tossed two or more touchdowns in four of his five outings. Safety Antoine Winfield is out for Tampa Bay this week, which hurts the outlook a bit for that secondary. Plus, the Buccaneers play zone at one of the league’s highest rates, a coverage that Young has shredded to the tune of a top-12 ranking in EPA/dropback and YPA, plus a 62.6% completion rate, 1,060 yards and three touchdowns. He’s simply too good to stop right now, so I like his player prop overs and for the Panthers to win this game.
