It’s not the flashiest matchup of the Week 7 slate – really, it might just be the worst – but even ugly football games bring some appeal for NFL betting. The Cleveland Browns are somehow 4-2 despite expectations of a tanking season, and on Sunday, they head to Tennessee to take on the 1-5 Titans.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Nashville, Tennessee. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Browns vs. Titans in NFL Week 7.
Browns vs. Titans prediction, preview
Look, this game is pretty gross. We’ll admit it!
The Browns are 4-2 and sit atop the AFC North just as everyone predicted. Well, actually it seems that nobody predicted this, but they’re riding their defense to success at the moment and doing just enough to get by on the other end. This unit ranks fifth in opponent scoring, giving up just 20.3 PPG and racking up 19 sacks already. They’ve allowed no more than 24 points in a game since Week 1 and have held their opponent under 20 in four of the last five, so this group really is quite stout, also ranking 11th in success rate allowed and EPA/dropback allowed. However, the offense needs some pretty serious help. The Browns average of 17.7 PPG ranks 28th around the league, and the play of Deshaun Watson under center with 1,174 yards and a 7-2 TD/INT ratio is just serviceable to keep drives moving. Leading rusher Quinshon Judkins missed last week’s game but is expected to return along with Dylan Sampson, so this backfield has an influx of reinforcements on the way. Rookie WR Denzel Boston (17 REC, 345 YDS, 3 TD) leads the team in receiving, followed by KC Concepcion (22 REC, 186 YDS) and an underperforming Harold Fannin Jr. (19 REC, 166 YDS, 3 TD). There’s some talent here, but the Browns are largely unable to capitalize with this quarterback and just are 23rd in EPA/play.
As for the Titans, the outlook appears pretty dire. They did finally win their first game last week 26-20 over the Colts, but that performance wasn’t particularly bright as Cam Ward threw for just 102 yards with a 50.0% completion rate, still failing to look like the franchise-altering talent that was promised at No. 1 last season. It was also the first game all season in which Tennessee topped 20 points, with the unit ranked 31st in scoring thanks to a paltry 14.0 PPG. However, there was a special-teams touchdown in there, so the offense still is yet to top 20 on its own. If it’s any consolation, Carnell Tate seems to be the real deal with 29 receptions for 344 yards and a touchdown, stringing together three quality games across his last four. Tony Pollard has also played solid football with 349 rushing yards and a score on 87 rush attempts, but he’s far from a star by any means and the rest of the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Defensively, Tennessee has a respectable spot at 13th with 21.5 PPG allowed to opponents, but even that isn’t particularly good. Take a look under the hood and the Titans are 22nd in EPA/play allowed while struggling especially against the pass at 26th in EPA/dropback allowed. They’re also just 25th in pressure rate generated, too.
Browns vs. Titans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Browns as a -2.5 favorite on the road with -130 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Titans are a +110 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 36.5 combined points.
There’s no better bet in this game than under 18.5 points on the Tennessee team total. The Titans’ offense has been miserably bad for the majority of the season thus far, and frankly, it’s very difficult to see them figuring things out against Cleveland. The Titans’ offensive line ranks 13th in pressure rate allowed, but the Browns are third in pressure rate generated and are also ninth in EPA allowed with the four-man rush. When Ward is pressured, he ranks 25th among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA/dropback and has a 42.9% completion rate with 209 yards and one touchdown to three picks and eight sacks. He’s been flat-out bad when opponents are near, and to be fair, he hasn’t been particularly good even with a clean pocket. I don’t expect this Tennessee offense to function well whatsoever.
