Indianapolis’ collapse against Tennessee cost general manager Chris Ballard his job. Shane Steichen now takes an offense that allowed six sacks into Minnesota after squandering a 13–0 halftime lead. Jonathan Taylor still looks like himself: 94 rushing yards and 57 receiving, despite the fumble that started the collapse. Minnesota returns from its bye at a curious 5–0. Brian Flores’ defense has tormented quarterbacks while the offense has limped through injuries. With several offensive starters nearing returns, Kevin O’Connell should finally have his healthiest group in weeks—and an opportunity to turn more of Brian Flores’s magnificent defensive work into comfortable wins. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Jets vs. Dolphins prediction, preview
Jets quarterback Geno Smith should, in theory, be licking his lips at this matchup. Miami has allowed quarterbacks to complete 87 of 97 throws traveling fewer than ten yards downfield this season. Smith already directs roughly three-quarters of his attempts there. Garrett Wilson has caught 35 of 48 targets, while rookie wideout and waiver wire darling Omar Cooper Jr. caught six passes for 103 yards on his return Sunday. Cooper ran 82% of New York’s routes, and attracted 33% of their first reads against the Patriots last week. Smith can surgically advance against this defense through familiar throws, especially with two capable threats at wideout.
Jets back Braelon Allen has been running with wonderful force for a backup. He flattened a Patriots safety after a catch Sunday, and has ripped off nine runs of 10+ yards over two games. Miami should make him work more for that kind of yardage: the Dolphins have held every opponent this season below 4.0 yards per carry. Fellow Jets back Breece Hall missed Wednesday’s practice with his quad injury, and is still week-to-week. Allen has kept the run game dangerous in his absence; I expect New York to persist with it while Smith attacks the more accommodating coverage. This is a good matchup for what’s been working for the Jets on offense.
Miami will answer, mostly, with their running game. Ollie Gordon II has gained 229 yards on 44 carries since taking over lead duties, including 100 against a stout Minnesota Vikings squad, which had to that point allowed only 3.5 yards per carry. Miami quarterback Malik Willis ran for 74 against Cincinnati, and the shifty Malik Washington has caught at least five passes in three straight games. Gordon’s running and Willis’ escapes can keep drives moving, but it’s unlikely to all click, here. Miami trailed Cincinnati 28–10 late in the third quarter before establishing any sort of offense; even with 217 rushing yards in the box score, they spent much of that afternoon chasing. The passing game is altogether flat. Willis completed just 15 of 27 passes for 137 yards and threw two interceptions, and looks nothing like a franchise quarterback.
Glenn eased off his blitzes against New England, and his defense subsequently failed to sack their quarterback. I expect him to test Willis’ protection more aggressively: Willis has a 61.5 passer rating against blitzes, while New York has blitzed on 31.5% of dropbacks overall. Miami offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik anticipated Minnesota’s all-out pressure and called a specific protection for it, then explained afterward how an early snap spoiled his blockers’ positioning. Slowik had the right call; Miami’s offense still couldn’t make it work. Dolphins wideout Caleb Douglas is only practicing on a limited basis in his ankle return, and Hafley has cautionined us about his readiness.
Dolphins vs. Jets pick, best bet
Jets OC Frank Reich aligned Omar Cooper outside alongside Wilson in two-tight-end formations Sunday. He’ll likely retain that pairing in heavy packages, from which New York has scored seven of its 11 touchdowns. Miami conceded three first-half red-zone passing touchdowns to Cincinnati’s backs and tight ends; the Dolphins have allowed touchdowns on 7.6% of opponents’ passes overall, second-worst in the league.
New York has finished a dismal six of 16 red-zone trips with touchdowns, but Reich can attack those coverage failures with his preferred and ascending personnel. Cooper might open GW5 up for a big game. In any case, against a defense allowing opponents to score on half their possessions, Smith should get repeated chances to finish. As for the Dolphins, Miami has reached the end zone on only six of 13 red-zone visits, and Willis’ pressure problems make rescuing stalled drives harder. I expect New York to reach the twenties while Miami’s passing failures keep them a touchdown behind. I’ll lay 4.5.
Best bet: Jets -4.5 (-115).
Projected score: Jets 24, Dolphins 16.
