The Houston Texans may just be able to salvage their season after dropping their first four games, but after back-to-back wins, they’ll need to keep the victories coming. Fortunately, this week’s matchup isn’t a particularly imposing one, though the New York Giants do bring a little bit of upset appeal after playing with house money ever since Jaxson Dart’s season was ended due to injury. There’s also a quarterback change in the cards as they turn to J.J. McCarthy, but do the G-Men have what it takes to win on the road?
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. Read on for a full betting preview, prediction and pick for Giants vs. Texans in NFL Week 7.
Giants vs. Texans prediction, preview
To this point, John Harbaugh and his team have handled business pretty well despite the hardships thrown their way. They’re 3-2-1 and sit atop an underwhelming NFC East, but that’s more of an indictment on the division than it is on this team. Really, New York sits in the middle of the pack regardless of how you look at it. The offense ranks 19th with 22.7 PPG; the defense falls in an identical spot with 23.3 PPG allowed. The Giants have survived without Jaxson Dart, whose season ended due to injury in Week 2, but they now turn to J.J. McCarthy rather than Jameis Winston under center. That’s because the former first-round pick – traded here earlier this month – nearly led a comeback with 243 passing yards and a touchdown (with an interception) in relief against the Saints last week. The staff now sees what they have in the young signal-caller, who will be throwing to a couple of standouts in WR Malik Nabers (41 REC, 494 YDS, 2 TD) and TE Isaiah Likely (39 REC, 383 YDS, 5 TD). The run game was supposed to be a strong suit for this roster, but Cam Skattebo has underperformed and played just six snaps in last week’s loss – allegedly as punishment for his fumbling issues after coughing the ball up four times already this season – and the team ranks 24th in EPA/rush. There are things to like here moving forward, but McCarthy’s play brings a high degree of variance in an already-tough matchup.
The Texans have a worse record than New York at just 2-4, but you can’t really argue that they’re a worse football team. Houston started extremely slow out of the gate, but also didn’t have Nico Collins for multiple games, which was a huge problem for an offense that largely lacks standout weapons. Thankfully, the group has now come around to average 24.0 PPG, 14th in the NFL. C.J. Stroud is a huge reason for that, quietly playing his best ball since his historic rookie year with 1,714 passing yards and a 9-1 TD/INT ratio. There’s a noticeable lack of a run game, with the backfield headlined by Woody Marks while David Montgomery (groin) remains out. However, the passing attack has made up for that. Believe it or not, Jaylin Noel leads the team in receiving with 334 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 grabs, though Collins has a 22-323-3 line and Dalton Schultz has gone 28-277-0. Plus, the front office traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., who debuted with three catches for 34 yards last week. The bad news is that the Texans’ defense doesn’t look anything like the unit we’ve become accustomed to in recent campaigns. They’re allowing 23.8 PPG, 20th in the league, and rank 20th in pressure rate despite their 18 sacks. If they can get back to the form we saw over the last couple of seasons, this team will be truly scary. Until then, the ceiling remains capped.
Giants vs. Texans pick, best bet
As of the time of this article’s writing, DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Texans as a -10 favorite at home with -520 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Giants are a +390 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 42.5 combined points.
If you ever have the chance to start a notoriously shaky young quarterback who’s pretty new to his team, you just have to do it against Houston’s defense, right? I totally get why the Giants are going this direction since Winston obviously isn’t a long-term answer at his age, but still, they couldn’t have waited one more week?
McCarthy showed plenty last week down the stretch, but it’s tough to feel any sort of confidence in him given the matchup. Even if the Texans’ defense has drastically underperformed, there’s still plenty of talent on the unit between the star edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., plus Derek Stingley Jr. as an All-Pro corner. They play aggressively and hit hard, and frankly, they should give McCarthy fits under center even despite safeties Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and Reed Blankenship (concussion/hand) being ruled out. You simply cannot feel good about the Giants’ outlook here, so the under on their quarterback’s passing lines and/or the spread for Houston feels right. If there’s ever a game in which this defense can bounce back, it’ll be this one.
