Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets for Braves vs. Phillies

The Phillies are on the brink to punching their ticket to the National League Championship Series against the Diamondbacks. But, to do so, they have to overcome Spencer Strider and the Braves offense. Who will prevail tonight and how should you build your Showdown lineup on DraftKings? Let’s discuss.

Set your DraftKings Showdown lineups here: MLB Showdown $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]

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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Spencer Strider ($18,900 CP) - So, the biggest question you have to ask yourself tonight is which version of Strider we see. Will it be the one that against the Phillies this season allowed just eight runs on 23 hits and 46 strikeouts through 33 innings, giving him an average of 29.7 DKFP in those starts? Or, will it be the Strider that through the second-half of the regular season, had a 4.39 ERA with a .281 wOBA and a 2.90 FIP? His wOBA and FIP were still great during the second-half, but he did allow exactly 40 earned runs while pitching 22 less inning than the first-half.

Strider has three pitches in his arsenal, fastball, slider, and a changeup. The slider, which he’s thrown 31% of the time, is the pitch that can really tie up the Phillies bats. Tonight’s projected lineup has a combined .294 wOBA with a 28.8% K% this season against that pitch thrown by righties. Overall, opposing hitters hit just .151 with 139 strikeouts against his slider. Amongst all the players you could put in your captain spot, while it could be a bit risky, Stider by far has the highest ceiling.

Austin Riley ($12,300 CP) - If you think that both pitchers are hit hard tonight, which is a good possibility with a game total set at 8.5, Riley is in a great spot to be one of the better scoring hitters on the slate. There is a lot to like about his matchup against Ranger Suarez ($15,300/$10,200 UTL) pitching in Philly. Suarez struggled at Citizens Bank Park, posting a 5.45 ERA with a .327 wOBA, a 4.15 FIP and a 1.2 HR/9. Riley wasn’t just a monster against lefties overall, but specifically on the road. In that scenario, Riley produced a .417 wOBA with a .368 ISO and a 163 wRC+. Riley has also hit sinkers very well, which is the main pitch thrown by Suarez. Riley, since the beginning of last season, has a .497 wOBA and a .341 ISO against that pitch thrown by lefties. This is a great way to try and grab a low owned captain that has produced a ton in these matchups.

UTIL Plays

Bryce Harper ($8,600) - It’s a bit absurd how Harper is priced. Six players are priced ahead of him and he’s been on one against the Braves. Through three games, Harper is 5-for-11 with three home runs, five RBI and five runs scored, averaging 22.3 DKFP. He has five hits through 18 at-bats against Strider, with two of them going for home runs. This is simply too cheap for someone that has been hitting as well as he has.

Kyle Schwarber ($8,000) - While I talked about the Phillies struggles against the slider, Schwarber has been one of the exceptions. He, along with Bryson Stott, have some of the best numbers against that pitch in tonight’s lineup. Schwarber has a .339 wOBA wtih a .245 ISO and a 16.8% BB%. Be warned, however, as Schwarber does strikouet 39% of the time since last year against the pitch. That’s typical of him, of course, but $8K for Schwarber hitting leadoff and good numbers against the slider is worth a consideration.

Orlando Arcia ($5,400) - In a perfect world, we can jam all these high priced guys into our lineup and cash easily. That’s just not the name of the game, so we have to go lower down the board. Arcia has been drawing a lot of attention this series for the wrong reasons. I do like him tonight against Suarez though. Arcia has great numbers against sinkers with a .444 wOBA and a .310 ISO since last season. Again, I don’t expect a good start from Suarez with all things considered. Arcia should carry very little ownership.

Fades

Marcell Ozuna ($7,400) - Ozuna is in no mans land in terms of pricing. He’s sandwiched in between Nick Castellanos ($7,200) and JT Realmuto ($7,600), both of whom I’d perfect over Ozuna. He’s only collected two hits in this three game series and hasn’t hit for power. If I’m choosing from this pool of players Ozuna is the one that gets cut. He’s just 3-for-14 against Suarez and over the past two years, has a .317 wOBA and a .171 ISO against sinkers. Not BAD numbers but not enough for me to make him a priority.

Set your DraftKings Showdown lineups here: MLB Showdown $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.