The Giants sent Robbie Ray down the coast in August, and here he comes again, this time with San Diego’s playoff hopes strapped to his veteran savvy. San Francisco just swept St. Louis; the Padres did the same to Washington. A pleasant few days for everybody, then. I’d feel better San Diego’s hopes in the reunion if Ray’s command had been a bit better over his last few outings. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Padres prediction, preview
His last five starts have been erratic as all get-out (18 strikeouts, 15 walks), with the Yankees sending him home after 2.1 innings Saturday. Anthony Molina has enjoyed an easier introduction to San Francisco (1.88 ERA, 14.1 innings), striking out six in both of his five-inning starts. He’s an intriguing young arm, but the sample size is small. I’m reluctant to firmly claim how good Molina is from so little work. We haven’t even seen him pitch into the sixth.
Jackson Merrill made Wednesday awfully difficult for Washington (four hits, two home runs, a triple, six RBI). Even half that afternoon would do nicely here for the Padres. San Francisco had its late awakening against St. Louis, flipping a 6-1 deficit into a stunning win with six runs in the eighth. Jung Hoo Lee and Shay Whitcomb smacked the doubles that tied it and put the Giants ahead. Ray’s going to need to make them earn baserunners if he wants to protect his team against another late-innings surge.
The slider gives him a way to do just that, provided San Francisco reaches for it (86mph; mostly always outside the strike zone). Spit on enough of those, and Ray has to establish his fastball, and that’s when innings can get expensive. Some singles we can live with. Another four walks in an abbreviated start would leave the Padres spending too much of the evening playing catch-up, particularly with a two-run win needed here.
Padres vs. Giants pick, best bet
Thursday’s break came at a useful moment for San Diego’s bullpen, which covered 6.1 scoreless innings Wednesday. Jeremiah Estrada and Jason Adam remain out, so I have to temper the season-long comparison between both staffs (Padres: 3.42 ERA, 1.21 WHIP; Giants: 4.25, 1.39). I still prefer San Diego’s, all the same, Mason Miller being what he is. If Molina hands over another competitive game after five innings, the Padres should have time to make the Giants wish he’d stayed longer.
I’m taking Padres -1.5 at +115, with some patience reserved for whatever Ray puts us through early for this sweat. I expect enough offense against Molina and the bullpen to make those projected free passes survivable. Padres, 5-3.
Best bet: Padres -1.5 (+115)
Projected score: Padres 5, Giants 3
Best bet: Padres -1.5 (+115) vs. Giants
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