Seattle had one hit through six innings Thursday, then scored four times once Texas removed Jacob deGrom. Sometimes the best thing an offense does is outlast somebody. Tonight in Sacramento, the Mariners get Jeffrey Springs again, six days after he shut them out for seven innings. I wouldn’t be eager to bet on a repeat of that one. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Athletics and the Seattle Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Athletics vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Springs’ home results are difficult to excuse (7.18 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .392 wOBA allowed). His previous two Sacramento starts saw him him chuck up 11 earned runs and four home runs in 9.1 innings. There’s still a good changeup here, with nearly 12mph separating it from his 91.4mph fastball. Seattle has to make him bring that slower pitch up in the zone. Chase beneath the zone, and the fastball becomes harder to time; leave it alone, and Springs has to find another way to get ahead. That’s the adjustment I’m looking for the Mariners to make tonight.
Julio Rodríguez, unusually quiet this September, had a deafening moment last night when he hit the game-deciding three-run homer. But the Athletics have shown they can bother George Kirby without their injured headliners. Lawrence Butler and Max Muncy homered in last weekend’s matchup against Kirby. Losing Nick Kurtz and Brent Rooker removes light-tower power, yes—yet the remaining offense has quietly scrapped together a 103 wRC+ over the past month. There’s enough life left in these A’s such that Kirby’ll have to earn his outs.
I can hear the reasonable objection to betting on scoring in this one: Springs needed only 81 pitches for those seven scoreless innings against the Ms. Kirby’s 3.81 FIP also suggests better run suppression than his 4.18 ERA. Neither starter needs the defense too much every time out. Away from Seattle, though, Kirby has allowed a .389 wOBA with a 5.48 ERA. His command hasn’t prevented hitters from doing damage, and it makes trusting either pitcher to keep the total under quite difficult.
Mariners vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Andrés Muñoz complicates the late innings further (41 pitches over consecutive days, three appearances in five games). Seattle might use him again, but I can’t assume either his availability or freshness. If he rests, a close game gets more interesting for hitters in the ninth. But I still like this bet.
I’m taking over 10 at -105. Springs can find his changeup for a few innings, Kirby can put together a decent start, and there should still be opportunities against Seattle’s bullpen or a starter facing hitters again. I expect Seattle to win 6-5. Eleven runs feels attainable here without requiring either offense to do all the work.
Best bet: Over 10 runs (-105)
Projected score: Mariners 6, Athletics 5
Best bet: Athletics vs. Mariners o10.0 total runs scored (-105)
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