Hope springs eternal in the American League. Despite their sub-.500 record, the Blue Jays (73-74) are within striking distance of a postseason berth. Trailing the Guardians by just one game, the AL’s final wild card spot is within reach for Toronto. It’s a similar story for the Orioles (71-76), who are three games behind Cleveland. This weekend’s series at Rogers Centre will have a major impact on the Junior Circuit’s playoff picture.
The Blue Jays are favorites (-143) over the Orioles; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Baltimore and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Orioles vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs (-126): Neither Bassitt or Scherzer has been particularly effective this season. The former struggles on the road, while the latter has been awful at home. Neither of these lineups are world-beaters, but tonight’s total isn’t unreasonable.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
It’ll be an old friend taking the mound tonight in Chris Bassitt. The former Blue Jays hurler has had a mediocre 2026 campaign with Baltimore. Over 85.1 innings of work (15 starts), he’s notched a 4.96 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 61 strikeouts (6.4 K/9). If anything, the 37-year-old has been fortunate. He ranks within the fifth percentile or worse among qualified starters in xBA (.285), chase rate (25.5%) and strikeout rate (15.7%). Bassitt’s one positive trait is a knack for limiting quality contact; he’s delivered an 88th percentile barrel rate (4.9%). With that being said, his splits are night and day outside of Camden Yards. The right-hander is on the hook for a whopping 6.43 ERA on the road.
If there was ever a group that could set an opposing starter right, it’s the Blue Jays. After all, these bats just got shut out against the A’s in Sacramento, a feat that is impressively bad. With that being said, the defending AL champs have shown some signs of life at the plate. Over the past month, their 111 wRC+ actually leads the American League. That hasn’t always translated to runs, but it’s a clear step up compared to earlier this summer. Toronto remains one of the sport’s top teams when it comes to working the count. The club is striking out just 7.16 times per game, second-fewest in the majors. As previously mentioned, Bassitt has trouble punching out opposing batters. That’s the perfect recipe for a dragged out, frustrating performance on the mound.
As for the Jays, Max Scherzer will get the nod this evening. Much like Bassitt, it’s been a disappointing season from the veteran. Through 62.2 innings pitched (14 starts), he’s accounted for a 6.03 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 48 strikeouts (6.9 K/9). The three-time Cy Young winner has looked better as of late, putting up a 2.55 ERA over his last three starts. Still, that’s a small sample size; the 42-year-old is well removed from his prime. Even more troubling, Scherzer has a dismal 6.23 ERA this season when pitching at Rogers Centre. A 2.1 HR/9 ratio at home is troubling, to say the least.
The Orioles aren’t the most consistent group at the plate. Still, this isn’t a bad offense by any means. The Birds are 14th in runs scored (661), 11th in home runs (176) and 15th in on-base percentage (.316). Interestingly enough, the O’s are averaging baseball’s sixth-most runs per game on the road (4.69). Scherzer is responsible for a 20th percentile barrel rate (9.2%). In comparison, Baltimore’s offense has produced the sport’s fourth-highest barrel rate (8.7%). A long ball or two from the visitors tonight wouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
Best Bet: Orioles vs. Blue Jays over 7.5 runs (-126)
Toronto’s offensive struggles this season seem to be dragging this total down. However, Bassitt doesn’t deserve any benefit of the doubt. Ditto for Scherzer, who is prone to giving up home runs. A power-laden Orioles lineup has what it take to go deep two or three times this evening. Expect the bats to go off tonight north of the border.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB DFS Picks Today: Top DraftKings Targets, Values for Friday 9/11/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Friday 9/11/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
