The Subway Series makes its return tonight in the Bronx. It’s been a disappointing season for the Mets (68-78), with little left to play for. However, the Amazin’s will come into this one motivated against their crosstown rivals. As for the Yankees (84-62), the next few weeks are crucial. The Pinstripes trail the Rays by three games for first place in the AL East. What’s in store between these two clubs on Friday night?
The Yankees are favorites (-137) over the Mets; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s interleague showdown on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Mets ML (+114): This is a fairly even pitching matchup between two quality arms. The biggest difference is at the plate, where the Mets have finally started to look like an offensive juggernaut. At plus money, the visitors make the most sense heading into tonight’s contest.
Mets vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Nolan McLean gets the nod tonight, the clear-cut ace on an otherwise middling Mets pitching staff. The rookie has been terrific for much of 2026, especially over the past few months. He comes into Friday with a 3.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 179 strikeouts (10.0 K/9) over 161.2 innings. During his last five outings, McLean has allowed a combined total of four earned runs (1.16 ERA). The right-hander is a jack of all trades, without any major glaring weaknesses in his repertoire. He ranks within the 69th percentile or better in xERA (3.63), xBA (.218), strikeout rate (26.7%), barrel rate (6.3%) and hard-hit rate (35.7%).
McLean will now get a date with one of baseball’s most frustrating lineups. The Yankees have scored 252 runs since July 1st, fifth-worst in the majors. However, the Bronx Bombers have turned things around a bit in recent weeks. They’re tied for eighth in wRC+ over the last month (104 wRC+), all while performing significantly better at home. In addition, superstar Aaron Judge made his long-anticipated return earlier this week vs. Colorado. McLean depends heavily on the sinker, throwing it on 32% of his pitches. Yankees batters are slashing .278/.367/.456 against that offering this season.
Aaron Boone will hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, making his 14th start of the season. When healthy, the southpaw remains one of the American League’s better arms. Over 64.0 innings, he’s delivered a 3.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 70 strikeouts (9.8 K/9). The three-time All-Star has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five appearances. Rodon has been an even better performer at home (2.92 ERA). The veteran’s biggest weakness is command; he owns an eighth percentile walk rate (12.7%).
Fortunately for Rodon, his opponents tonight aren’t the most disciplined at the plate. The Mets are only averaging 3.22 walks per game, tenth-worst in the big leagues. Granted, this group has looked far more potent since Juan Soto’s return from the injured list. During the month of September, the Amazin’s lead all of baseball with 62 runs scored. This could be a tricky matchup for the visitors. The Mets have a .689 OPS against left-handed pitching, eighth-worst in the league. Still, he coughed up two runs during 3.2 innings when these teams met in May.
If the Mets are going to take a game in this series, it’s on Friday. Rodon is no pushover, but his injury recovery and shaky control make pitching deep a challenge. The Yankees are swinging better bats as of late, but McLean is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Given their slight edge on the mound and red-hot hitting, the Mets offer more value as plus money underdogs tonight.
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