Boston got Thursday off. After 14 games in 13 days, I suspect the Red Sox would have happily accepted Wednesday off, too. Instead, they spotted the Angels six runs, and spent the rest of a 6-4 loss trying to salvage a win during a pathetic series. Tonight, admittedly, offers a better arrangement: Sonny Gray (who may or may not pitch again next year?) starts against an inconsistent Kansas City lineup, with a rested bullpen behind him. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Royals prediction, preview
Gray has a 2.32 ERA across his last five starts, with a 29:8 K/BB in that time. Seth Lugo’s line across the same stretch is considerably uglier (39 hits, 24.1 innings, just 15 strikeouts), and it’s the missing strikeouts concern me most. His curveball retains its lovely shape and spin (3,103 rpm), but the sinker averages a mere 91.4 mph. Which is to say—survive the curve and there’s little velocity left to hurry a hitter up. Gray, meanwhile, got seven misses on 13 swings against his sweeper when these teams met in May. Kansas City has seen how unpleasant that pitch can be, and Gray is so confident right now he can, as he says, spin the ball to on the moon.
Wilyer Abreu has 13 home runs since the All-Star break, but has been quite; Roman Anthony has three since returning 8/30, but has also been otherwise quite. Both homered Wednesday, though Boston shouldn’t need everything to come by way of the longball. Lugo allowed only two home runs during these last five rough starts. The other 37 hits did plenty of damage, though, and I’d gladly take a few innings of singles before asking the power lefties to nuke one.
The objection is sitting right there in the fielding-independent numbers. Gray’s 3.50 FIP and Lugo’s 4.17 suggest a much smaller difference than their ERAs, and Boston won Gray’s start against KC in May by just two runs. Lugo can absolutely keep this close, but it’ll be tough if he still can’t miss bats anymore.
Royals vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
After Lugo, Kansas City has to pray for the remaining outs. Its bullpen carries a 5.01 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, against Boston’s elite (but, as of late, faltering) 3.14 and 1.16. Late innings always afford the Red Sox another opportunity to score, and, in this case, especially if Lugo leaves the game competitive. Thursday’s break also came at a useful moment for Boston’s relievers: after that crowded schedule, an evening without anybody warming up is desperately welcome here in September. I prefer their chances of keeping a lead intact.
Give me Gray to limit the early damage and Boston’s hitters to keep adding against Kansas City’s relief. I have it 5-2.
Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
Projected score: Red Sox 5, Royals 2
Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+105) vs. Royals
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