With Week 10 now upon us, we’re officially entering the second half of the NFL season. The Jaguars are showing all the signs of a true contender, and after making a couple of huge additions at the trade deadline, they may get even better down the stretch. This week, though, they’ve got to take care of business against the Titans. It may not be the most imposing matchup, but you play whoever’s in front of you – will Jacksonville pull off its third straight blowout win?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Jaguars vs. Titans in NFL Week 10.
Jaguars vs. Titans prediction, preview
On one side of this matchup, we have the 6-2 Jaguars, who sit atop the AFC South with a comfortable lead. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball, bringing the league’s most formidable run defense and an offense that can put up points in a hurry. Coming off back-to-back wins out of the bye, they’re on the road against a 1-7 Titans roster that’s missing one of its top playmakers once again on an already-paltry offense. Here are the keys to this week’s game:
Can Tony Pollard make magic happen again?: Over the last two games, the Titans’ RB1 made a serious case for contending teams to acquire his services via trade. The veteran recorded 129 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Browns, then erupted again for 117 yards and a pair of scores against the Bengals. This hot streak has been incredible from the 29-year-old, frankly, but he’s also practically been the only playmaker to perform for Tennessee’s offense. He scored all three of his team’s touchdowns in Week 7 and accounted for two of the club’s four scores in Week 8 – one could say that if he’s not scoring, hardly anyone is. While neither of Jordan Davis or Jessie Bates III will make their debuts just yet for Jacksonville after the team traded for them earlier in the week, this run defense is arguably still tops in the league. The Jaguars rank first in EPA/rush allowed, also sitting fourth in rushing success rate allowed and rushing yards per game allowed (89.3). If Pollard can’t find room to run, the Titans’ offense will almost certainly falter.
Is Cam Ward capable of playing like an NFL QB?: The Titans thought they’d get a franchise-altering quarterback when they took Cam Ward at No. 1 in 2025. Since then, he ranks 41st among 42 qualifying QBs in EPA/dropback and 32nd in pressure to sack rate. This season alone, Tennessee is just 27th in EPA/play on offense and 25th in EPA/dropback, which is quite the indictment on the sophomore’s play. The offseason addition of Wan’Dale Robinson hasn’t helped a ton, and rookie Carnell Tate has been ruled out again for this week. Ward played his best game of the season last time he took the field with 304 yards and two touchdowns, also rushing seven times for 41 more yards. Yet it was his first outing of the campaign with more than one touchdown pass, and just his second with over 183 passing yards. The Jags’ defense is third in pressure rate and first in time to pressure, so they’ll keep the quarterback uncomfortable again – especially without his best receiver available.
How much will Jacksonville run up the score?: The Jaguars faced hapless teams in each of their last two games coming out of the bye week. They beat the Colts 42-7 in Week 8 and followed it with a 33-10 win over the Joe Fagnano-led Ravens in Week 9. They bottled up both Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry in those contests, so combatting the Titans’ best weapon shouldn’t be too difficult since Pollard isn’t the caliber of player those other guys are. The Jaguars’ offense is what I really want to focus on, though. They’re fourth in PPG with 28.6 per contest, also sitting second in EPA/play with top-four EPA marks per dropback and rush. Their success rate is 11th in football and their explosive play rate ranks seventh. In all aspects, this is a deadly unit. While the Titans are (were?) not terrible in terms of raw PPG allowed with 24.9, they’ve allowed 27 to the Browns and 43 to the Bengals since trading Jeffery Simmons away two weeks ago. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball with ease, which leads us to our best bet.
Jaguars vs. Titans pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Jaguars were a -10.5 favorite on the road with -650 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Titans were a +470 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 46.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There’s no question about what direction I’ll be betting this game. The Jags should cover handily here, and I’d consider taking an alt line that favors them even more depending on the odds on -12.5 and -13.5 (I think they could win by even more, though). Even a risk-averse bettor should feel comfortable betting an alt line of -9.5 here, too. Jacksonville has far better weapons on offense with numerous playmakers. The defense is elite at taking away what seems to be the one thing Tennessee’s offense has been good at lately. To top it off, Trevor Lawrence is a thousand times better than Ward is at this stage of their careers. Even with their new trade additions out this week, there’s no question that this should be a blowout in favor of the visitors.
