With Week 10 now upon us, we’re officially entering the second half of the NFL season. The Browns were running hot for much of the first half, but have suffered back-to-back losses and are now showing signs that they’re the team we expected them to be rather than the surprise division contender we saw for weeks. On the opposite sideline against them on Sunday are the Texans – one of the league’s worst underachievers thus far, though there’s hope they could still sneak into the playoffs if they can keep winning.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Texans vs. Browns in NFL Week 10.
Texans vs. Browns prediction, preview
The first four weeks of the campaign saw Houston drop all four games, digging itself into a hole that would prove tough to climb out of. Since then, though, this team has won three of its four games and is now 3-5 heading into Week 10, blowing out the Chargers 44-22 coming out of their bye last time out.
For the Texans, the offense remains the key to success – who saw this coming? C.J. Stroud is coming off his best game of the season with 384 passing yards and five touchdowns last week, continuing his bounce-back campaign as he plays the best football we’ve seen from him since his rookie year. Now, he has over 2,200 passing yards and a 16-2 TD-INT ratio, but he’ll be tested by a Browns defense that ranks ninth in EPA/dropback allowed. While Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled out for Houston, the stable of pass-catching weapons remains quite deep between Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and an emerging Tank Dell – the latter of whom has 148 receiving yards and a touchdown in his first two games back from injury since 2024. The passing attack has gotten Houston’s offense to 26.1 PPG, ninth most in the league; the run game will likely continue to struggle, though, with Woody Marks again the primary back since David Montgomery has been ruled out again. Their own defense has also severely underperformed compared to expectations, allowing 24.0 PPG to opponents and falling 18th in EPA/play allowed. Unfortunately, the Texans will be severely understaffed on that side of the ball since linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and edge Danielle Hunter have been ruled out, with fellow edge Will Anderson Jr. questionable.
The Browns did turn some heads through the first few weeks of the season, winning five of their first seven games. They’ve dropped their last two to the Steelers and Saints, though, bringing them to 5-4 as the walls begin to close in.
Cleveland has gotten by on the strength of its defense all year, but while the unit still allows an average of 21.8 PPG, the last three weeks have seen the group give up 24, 27 and 23. The Browns are 13th in EPA/play allowed, and while great against the pass, they fall all the way to 31st in EPA/rush allowed and 31st in explosive play rate allowed, too. The pass rush is still playing well at 12th in pressure rate, and that could be a factor that swings this matchup. Still, the Browns’ offense has to hold up their end of the bargain, too. Deshaun Watson returns from a one-week absence and steps under center against his old team, so he’s set to exact revenge if he can play well. His team’s attack hasn’t been great this year, though. They’re producing the third-fewest PPG with just 17.9 and are also 25th in EPA/play. The run game has struggled greatly despite getting both Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson healthy at the same time, which has in turn limited the upside of the passing attack. Even with Houston’s injuries in the pass rush, Cleveland’s offensive line may have issues since the group is 31st in pressure rate allowed, too. Overall, there’s just very little ceiling to this Browns offense.
Texans vs. Browns pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Texans were a -4.5 favorite on the road with -225 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Browns were a +185 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 40.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Houston passing attack facing off against the Cleveland secondary is clearly the biggest matchup in this contest. Stroud is on a heater this season, and while the Browns’ defense has been very good against the pass, we know the volume will be there for the Texans’ QB1. Now, he has been better against zone than man this season, ranking 18th in EPA/dropback against the latter among 31 qualifying quarterbacks. That matters here since the Browns run man coverage at the NFL’s highest rate. The questionable status for Texans offensive linemen Trent Brown and Wyatt Teller, as well as the out designation for lineman Keylan Rutledge, all matter as well.
Even with all that in mind, it’s tough to see one of the league’s best quarterbacks being shut down entirely. Stroud is throwing dots this year, which you can’t say about Watson and his much lower ceiling. The Texans should win this game, by all means… but it may be fairly close given the numerous injuries. And while some of those could be high-impact absences, I’m actually still fairly comfortable with taking the under on 18.5 total points for the Browns. Their offense just hasn’t shown up on a week-to-week basis and is likely to still struggle this week against a Houston unit with hypothetical upside – even if it hasn’t performed up to its lofty standards often lately. Factor in that standout rookie Denzel Boston is questionable for Cleveland, and if the wideout misses, the offense will become even more consolidated. I expect Watson to have a tough time here at home, keeping the team total under the line.
