With Week 10 now upon us, we’re officially entering the second half of the NFL season. Following back-to-back losses, the Chiefs finally got back on the right foot last week. However, they’ll be without superstar Kenneth Walker III for this matchup against the Falcons, meaning the rest of the offense will need to step up. Thankfully for Kansas City, the opposing defense doesn’t present the toughest assignment, but Atlanta will be playing with fire as the team looks to save its season.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Chiefs vs. Falcons in NFL Week 10.
Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction, preview
The Chiefs dropped back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Broncos in Weeks 7 and 8, but a 35-12 drubbing of the Jets put them back on the right track last time out. Now, they’re 6-2 with a lot of things going right for them, but there are three storylines to watch in this contest.
The biggest by far is what this offense looks like without Kenneth Walker III in the backfield. The star ranks third among RBs in scrimmage yards with 1,044 on the year, while his 11 total touchdowns are tied for the NFL lead. With a groin issue that popped up in practice now leaving him sidelined for this game, it’s uncertain whether the Chiefs will be able to keep the offense clicking. Emmett Johnson has shown flashes as the backup halfback and now steps into a featured role, but the play of Patrick Mahomes is the second big unknown. Kansas City’s franchise icon suffered knee and elbow injuries last week – he logged three full practices and carries no injury designation, but he may be playing through some pain. Finally, storyline No. 3 may provide some additional help out of the slot. The Chiefs traded fourth and fifth-round picks to the Colts in exchange for Josh Downs and a seventh, so the wideout should be a boon to this passing attack by providing another reliable target for Mahomes. All in all, don’t expect the same ceiling on this attack this week as we usually see with Kansas City averaging 25.3 PPG at fifth in EPA/play, but the unit should still be able to move the ball.
The Falcons find themselves floundering, winning just one of their last five games and going 3-4 since Michael Penix Jr. stepped in under center back in Week 3. Those are their only three wins on the year with a 3-6 record on the campaign, but since every team in the NFC South has just three wins, the season is far from lost for Atlanta.
The offense is unpredictable, but has largely been able to put points on the board with the usual starter under center. Aside from two weeks of backup quarterback play and a Week 8 contest played under monsoon-like conditions, the Falcons have scored at least 17 points in every game – on the full campaign, they average 20.9 PPG. While they lost last week, they did get back to basics with a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson both on the ground and as a receiver, and it’s clear at fifth in EPA/rush that pounding the rock is the best avenue to success. However, that’ll be very difficult against a Chiefs defense that ranks sixth in EPA/rush allowed, so they’ll need to find other ways to get him involved. It’s also worth noting that the front office shipped out starting center Ryan Neuzil at the trade deadline, so that may be a hit to the run game moving forward. The defense, however, is where the real questions arise. Atlanta ranks 12th in EPA/play allowed but is giving up 24.8 PPG. The front office just traded star safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars at the deadline on Tuesday, too, so that leaves the back end a little more vulnerable.
Chiefs vs. Falcons pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Chiefs were a -3 favorite on the road with -166 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Falcons were a +140 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 47.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are key injuries to note on both sides of this matchup. For Kansas City, standout rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane is questionable along with defensive linemen Peter Woods and Omarr Norman-Lott. Of course, Walker is also out as mentioned earlier, too. For Atlanta, edge James Pearce Jr. is questionable along with linebacker Josh Woods and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr., with linebacker Divine Deablo doubtful.
With Walker out of the picture, this feels like a chance for the Falcons to really stick around. The halfback is the heart and soul of the Chiefs’ offense this season, and while Johnson has looked solid in relief, the rookie won’t be able to replicate what the starter does on a weekly basis. The possibility of Mahomes’ throwing elbow not being at full strength is another worry, though the addition of Downs does provide another separator to run routes from the slot and get open in the short and intermediate areas of the field. It’s just tough to see this offense playing up to its ceiling, which allows Atlanta to stay in the game. The Falcons are going to try and control the pace of play on the ground, and if Delane winds up sidelined as he has in the last two weeks, his absence clearly boosts the outlook for Penix and his passing attack. I expect a competitive game on Sunday, though the edge still goes to Kansas City based on the club’s superior defense that ranks third in opponent PPG allowed (17.9) and eighth in EPA/play allowed.
