With Week 10 now upon us, we’re officially entering the second half of the NFL season. The top and bottom of the league have separated, and the same goes for the AFC East. The Bills are surging with just one loss on the entire campaign; the Jets are simply trying to get by as the losses keep coming. Now, these rivals face off for the first time this season.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Bills vs. Jets in NFL Week 10.
Bills vs. Jets prediction, preview
Just about everything is going right for the Bills this season. They’re 7-1 overall, with the lone loss coming back in Week 4 by three points to the Patriots. Last week, they put up 23 points on an elite Vikings defense in primetime, marking their fourth consecutive win, too. The offense is truly the best in the NFL under first-year head coach Joe Brady, leading the league with 32.0 PPG and the third-best EPA/play. You know the drill by now – Josh Allen is playing like the MVP with 2,027 passing yards and a 12-6 TD-INT ratio, adding nine more scores on the ground. James Cook’s 814 rushing yards rank fifth in the league, also scoring eight touchdowns of his own. The tandem dominates on the ground, and while the question of whether they continue to roll against a Jets defense that ranks eighth in EPA/rush allowed is valid, Allen can just attack through the air if the run game doesn’t come online. While the defense is rather uninspiring with 23.4 PPG allowed and a ranking at 16th in EPA/play allowed, that side of the ball matters far less when you’re a world-beater on offense. It’s worth mentioning, though, that Buffalo traded for standout safety Amani Hooker at the deadline, adding extra oomph to a back half that needed it desperately.
The Jets have trended in the opposite direction. The expectations weren’t particularly high coming into the season, but the 2-7 record and four straight losses are still disappointing given that many pundits believed this team would take a step forward. In some regards, they have; the offense is 15th in EPA/play and eighth in success rate. That’s due in no small part to steady play from veteran quarterback Geno Smith and the breakout of numerous young playmakers – Braelon Allen now forms a formidable backfield tandem with incumbent Breece Hall, while Omar Cooper Jr. looks like a foundational piece of the passing attack and AD Mitchell has shown promise. However, both of those wideouts are questionable, as is Garrett Wilson, so the receiver room could be quite depleted this week depending on who winds up available. There are numerous injuries on the defense to monitor, too. Linebacker Trevin Wallace is out, and edge Joseph Ossai and lineman Harrison Phillips are both questionable to play. While New York has shown some growth defensively, especially with a pass rush that ranks fourth in pressure rate, the unit is still allowing 24.8 PPG and falls 20th in EPA/play allowed.
Bills vs. Jets pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Bills were a -7.5 favorite on the road with -395 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Jets were a +310 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 50.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The spread is just too short given the gap between these clubs. Buffalo is clearly a real Super Bowl contender and has the pieces to light up any opposing defense, producing 23+ points in every single game. That’s unlikely to change this week, even against a New York defense that has performed well at times. Granted, the Jets have played some close games against good teams – they lost by seven to both the Lions and the Patriots earlier in the year. Perhaps it’s best to take an alt line of -6.5 for the Bills with that in mind, and frankly, that’s the avenue I would recommend just in case. The reasoning for that? It’s simply that the Jets may lean heavily on Hall and Braelon Allen to control the clock when they have the ball, keeping possession away from Josh Allen for as long as possible. New York may not get blown out entirely if it can accomplish that, but we know for a fact that the Bills are at least a touchdown better than their opponent.
