With Week 10 now upon us, we’re officially entering the second half of the NFL season. There are some banger games on the slate this Sunday, but a meeting between the Dolphins and Colts is not one of them. Still, there are a couple of interesting things to watch for in this one, and if you know where to look, there’s even some betting value on the table.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Dolphins vs. Colts in NFL Week 10.
Dolphins vs. Colts prediction, preview
Look, we get that this game is probably the ugliest on the schedule this week since the Dolphins and Colts are both early in their rebuilds. For that reason, we’ll keep things short and simple.
Miami is only 1-7, with the lone win coming against the Jets back in Week 7. The offense is downright abysmal at the moment with just 15.8 PPG, second fewest in the NFL. However, the pace of play has a lot to do with that since the Dolphins are dead last in PROE at a clip of -8.0 and tend to wait until late on the play clock to snap the ball, dragging total possessions down. Ollie Gordon II is one of few bright spots, with the former Doak Walker Award winner talllying 463 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 107 carries while working as a clear workhorse for most of the campaign. Caleb Douglas, the rookie third-rounder out of Texas Tech, also looks like a foundational piece moving forward with 296 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 19 catches. However, this week’s performance – and the next four – may take a nosedive with Kyle McCord making his first career start while Malik Willis is on IR. It’s very tough to trust this offense to begin with, but even more so now.
The Colts are only 2-7, which means Shane Steichen could very well be on the way out of town since things clearly aren’t going to turn around. The team traded away some of its best players over the last two weeks, parting with Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen – a fire sale that indicated they’re looking toward the future. However, Jonathan Taylor, the most coveted running back on the trade market, remained in Indianapolis despite the expectation that he’d be moved. After a couple of quieter weeks in which his workload was limited, he may be on track to get a heavy dose of touches with a move now out of the question until the offseason. With 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, he’s practically the only producing piece this offense has left in place. Tyler Warren has failed to live up to his rookie campaign with only 275 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 38 catches, and as much as he doesn’t look like himself out there after the catch, the play of Daniel Jones under center hasn’t helped him out. Indianapolis averages only 20.4 PPG and is third-to-last in EPA/play, too.
Dolphins vs. Colts pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Colts were a -4.5 favorite at home with -218 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Dolphins were a +180 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 37.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Indianapolis defense is one of the NFL’s worst units, allowing 27.7 PPG on the year. It also is the worst in the league against the run, ranking dead last in EPA/rush allowed. Gordon II could run over the Colts here, but other than him, it’s hard to see many playmakers getting involved for Miami with McCord under center. The former sixth-round pick has never thrown a pass in a regular-season game and was traded to South Beach this past offseason, with the Dolphins giving a sixth-rounder for his services. He’s a massive unknown operating in an offense that just flat-out isn’t good, also keeping scores down for opposing offenses by virtue of their ball-control emphasis. Between the uncertainty under center for the visitors and the fact that the Colts’ own offense was underwhelming even before trading two wideouts away, the under here feels like a great pick.
