Do the Miami Marlins even remember what it’s like to lose? The club has now won six straight games and remains the hottest in the MLB since June 1, surging into the postseason picture and even looking like they have a shot at the division. Tonight, they duel the Cleveland Guardians, who are still struggling to stay afloat behind an uninspiring offense and some standout pitching. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET in Miami on Friday evening.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Guardians vs. Marlins matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Cleveland Guardians
It’s been a rough month or so for the Guardians, who are still above .500 at 48-46 but have gone just 14-19 since the start of June. It’s clear they still miss superstar Jose Ramirez, who remains sidelined due to a hamate fracture. With a -9 run differential and just 3.97 runs per game, it’s a blessing the pitching is good enough to keep the club in the AL Central mix (albeit in a weak division). The rest of the offensive numbers won’t impress, either. Cleveland falls second-to-last in OPS at .679 on a slash line of .228/.310/.369, while a .140 ISO also comes in at second lowest. These bats also have just 90 home runs on the campaign, fifth fewest. Granted, the approach at the plate is quite solid between a 9.9% BB% and a 22.3% K%; it just hasn’t translated to much success at the dish at 26th in wRC+. The Guardians do face a right-hander tonight after slashing .229/.310/.376 for a .686 OPS in the split.
LHP Parker Messick takes the mound with a 7-5 record in 18 games. The second-year hurler has been excellent, dishing to the tune of a 2.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 109 strikeouts across 106.0 IP. Cleveland’s bullpen is also very solid with a 3.79 ERA that ranks 10th and a 15.9% K-BB%, though a 1.33 WHIP is a bit elevated.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are hotter than fish grease, going 26-8 since June 1 for a staggering .765 winning percentage. Now, they’re 52-42 on the year with a +31 run differential, threatening the second-place Phillies and first-place Braves in the NL East. The club’s .745 OPS still ranks sixth in baseball but has ticked up thanks to a .255/.332/.413 slash line, also logging a 9.1% BB% and a low 21.3% K%. This team can flat-out hit, and a .158 ISO continues to creep upwards as well. The Marlins have 95 home runs, 24th in the sport as well. Tonight, they get the lesser of their splits with a .242/.324/.407 line against lefties, but even that’s a very respectable set of statistics.
RHP Sandy Alcantara gets the starting nod in something of a resurgent effort lately, going 10-4 in 19 starts. He brings a 4.00 ERA with a .125 WHIP, though 92 strikeouts in 123.2 IP won’t impress. The bullpen is now seventh in ERA at 3.73, posting a 1.20 WHIP and a 14.2% K-BB% amidst a recent hot stretch.
Guardians vs. Marlins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Marlins as -122 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Guardians are underdogs with +101 odds to win outright on the road. The total sits at just seven combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Sandy Alcantara to record a win (+167)
Two standout pitchers. One of the hottest teams in all of baseball. Could this game have sneaky good written all over it? It’s quite possible. Messick has been awesome this year, but he probably won’t get a ton of support from the bats tonight given the assignment against Alcantara. The latter was very shaky in May but overcame that cold stretch to deliver a 7-0 record with a 2.98 ERA and 40 punchouts across 48.1 IP in the seven starts since. He’s absolutely locked in at the moment and has been playing some of the best ball we’ve seen from him in quite some time. With the struggles of the Cleveland lineup and an MLB-leading .927 OPS over the last 14 days for Miami, picking the best bet for tonight is easy. With +167 value on Sandy to record a win, I’m not thinking twice about this line.
