With Opening Day around the corner, fantasy baseball draft season is in full swing. And if you’re lucky enough to have landed the No. 1 overall pick, the choice is as easy as it’s been in years: After a season in which he became the first player ever to join the 40/70 club, Ronald Acuna Jr. is the near-consensus choice atop every draft in every format. `
We’re certainly not here to argue against that — seriously, 40/70 speaks for itself, and even if you shaved 10-20% off of last year’s stats, he’s still lapping the field. But consensus is boring, especially this time of year. So, in the wake of a little bit of a scare regarding the status of Acuna’s surgically repaired knee, we thought we’d ask: If someone other than the Braves superstar finishes as the top player in fantasy this year, who might that be? Here’s our list of possibilities.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Witt Jr. hit 15 homers with 15 steals across July and August last year, the former top prospect fully arriving as a superstar in Kansas City. Granted, he came back to Earth after that, and the track record of elite production here is short. But Witt Jr. has the tools and the pedigree to back up that kind of performance, and we saw what his ceiling looks like — obviously it’s irresponsible to prorate a scorching two months out to a full season, but he’s one of the few players in the league who has the power/speed combination to unseat Acuna should Acuna regress a little bit.
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Speaking of power and speed: Rodriguez has a claim to being the best pound-for-pound athlete in the Majors right now, built like a linebacker who hits the ball as hard and runs about. as fast as anyone around. His aggression at the plate leads to some real streakiness, much like Witt Jr. But Rodriguez’s ceiling might be even higher, and we’ve seen him stack consecutive elite fantasy seasons. Rodriguez is, to me, the clear second choice behind Acuna, and if he ever makes some gains in terms of plate approach, his ceiling could come close to Acuna — even if he’s unlikely to steal 73 bases.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Judge is the only player in the league about whom I can’t say with confidence he won’t hit 60 homers in a given season. Granted, I’m certainly not projecting that, and Judge’s health issues are well-documented as he enters his 30s with a frame that typically doesn’t age all that well. Still, Judge is the only guy on this list who has actually been the top player in fantasy at some point in his career, and if he stays on the field for a full season, 60 homers with double-digit steals and a plus batting average is very much in play — we’ve seen him do it. In this day and age, it’s hard to see a path to No. 1 overall status if you’re not going 30/30, but that power edge is real, and if Acuna takes a step back, Judge could be at the top of the heap when the dust settles.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
This is, admittedly, the toughest case for me to make — unlike the guys ahead of him (and below him, really), Carroll’s game is less about the loudness of his tools and more about everything adding up to more than the sum of their parts. He does everything pretty well, and that allows his top-of-the-scale speed to shine on the bases. Carroll is the best bet to match Acuna’s stolen-base total, and while the power numbers will probably never be elite, something like a 30/60 season isn’t totally out of the question if he starts hitting the ball in the air more as he grows into his game. Again, I think this is the most outlandish scenario presented here — and Carroll’s shoulder problems have me fading him at his current price — but there are universes in which he’s No. 1.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Ah, from my least favorite bet on the board to my favorite one. I’ve written about this elsewhere, but Tatis Jr. bears a lot of the same hallmarks as Acuna did this time last spring: a preternaturally gifted player who experiences historically rare success in his early 20s, only to spend a year or two in the wilderness due to injury (and, in Tatis Jr.’s case, a PED suspension on top of it). But that history, and Tatis Jr.’s relatively down 2023, have people too wishy-washy on him. Players who are as good as young as Tatis Jr. has been hardly ever develop into anything less than Hall of Famers, and it’s worth noting that he came back midseason last year after an extended period away from Major League competition. I’m betting on the skill set here, and think that Tatis Jr. will get back to his earlier form — when he showed almost as much power/speed potential as Acuna.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
I’m an advocate for fading pitchers over the first couple of rounds, but I have to at least include one here for argument’s sake. And if we’re going to include a pitcher, it has to be Strider — the only way a pitcher could find his way to No. 1 overall is by combining durability with immense strikeout upside. Strider certainly has the latter, blowing away the competition in the category. He’s only cracked 150 innings once so far in his young MLB career, so the former remains something of a question. But Strider has the team context and the talent to be clearly the best pitcher in fantasy, and if he gives us 200 innings and we get some weirdness with top hitters, it could happen.
