Our March Madness picks are now at 12-6, but as the board tightens up per day with only two games available for the next two days, the options for finding value tighten up as well.
We shall do our best to keep it going on the truncated list of options, as UConn takes on Illinois and Clemson faces Alabama, with the winners heading to Glendale for the Final Four
2024 March Madness picks: Saturday, March 30
UConn -8.5 (and literally whatever) vs. Illinois
The Huskies have covered in nine of their last 10. They’ve covered every first half and second half in the NCAA Tournament. They have dominated from pillar to post, but will get a very game Illinois team that can score as well as anyone in the country.
It. Doesn’t. Matter. Somehow we got this at -6.5 when it opened thanks to an unnamed Nevada sportsbook failing to be good at their jobs. This game could be a lot of fun, and could get very pointsy with all the weapons I-L-L has even outside of Terrence Shannon Jr. This is the No. 2 offense in the country by KenPom after all.
But we have made a mint on UConn this season, and that won’t stop now.
Clemson vs. Alabama Over 163.5
Whatever Clemson’s doing with their Super Magic Defense Orb has changed the outcome of this tournament. Teams that have been lights out from three-point range this season seem to be getting plenty of open looks against the Tigers… and just flat missing them.
New Mexico: 32.7% for the season, 3-23 vs. Clemson
Baylor: 39.5% this season, 6-24 vs. Clemson
Arizona: 36.6% this season, 5-28 vs. Clemson
Some kind of regression to the mean has to come about at some point, and we’ll also hope for Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (44.3% from three this season) to return for the Crimson Tide to help break the curse.
The math says Bama in this spot, but with the pace and projected scoring, we’ll feel safer hoping the loser gets at least 82. Bama’s is the No. 4 offense in the nation this season, and has gone over 100 more than any other major college team.
Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 28.5 Points-Rebounds-Assists
Clemson’s PJ Hall over 16.5 points feels like basically a lock, but you’ll have to lay -150. So we take a player prop here that feels a bit more challenging.
Shannon is going to find a way to impact this game. If that’s as a playmaker because Dan Hurley decides to make him a passer and shut him down, that’s fine. If his team needs him to use his size as a rebounder from the weak side against Donovan Clingan, that’s fine. Or if UConn decides to let him get his, and shut down the other four players on the floor, that’s ok too.
Shannon might be the best player in the NCAA Tournament so far, and he’ll probably keep that going against the Huskies, even if that will be in a loss.
