New Orleans has plenty to fix after getting dismantled on Monday by 51 against Golden State, but Wednesday’s opponent arrives with its own problems. Brooklyn scraped together just 93 points in its last outing, and both teams enter this matchup looking for an offensive reset. The Pelicans host the Nets at Smoothie King Center on November 11 at 8 p.m. ET, with DraftKings Sportsbook listing New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite and the total at 228.5.
Trey Murphy III is doubtful, while Bennedict Mathurin, Yves Missi, and Trendon Watford are out. Brooklyn gets Egor Demin back, but Mikel Brown Jr. is out and Nolan Traore is questionable.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
It’s another ugly season for the Nets, as Brooklyn sits with 106.7 PPG, ranking 27th and sitting 28th in offensive efficiency. Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle provide the Nets with their best scoring options with 21.5 and 20 PPG, respectively, but their individual production has not given this team a functional offense, as the stats show. At 2-8, Brooklyn is still searching for combinations that make those individual strengths work together. Demin’s return gives the Nets another ball handler, although Brown’s absence prevents them from getting their full backcourt together. Brooklyn has had two days off since Sunday’s loss. Whether that produces better possessions is another matter; my guess is no.
New Orleans has more exciting offensive upside. The Pelicans rank eighth at 117.5 PPG while ranking 17th in offensive rating. They also rank second in estimated possessions per game, which means their scoring volume has to do with more opportunities. Their 4-7 start is comprised of a four-game winning streak followed by three consecutive losses. Zion Williamson has been the Pelicans’ go-to offensive weapon, averaging 21 PPG on 62.3% shooting. While he is an absolute force near the rim, he offers no floor spacing. The Pelicans clock in at 32.5% from deep, ranking 26th in the league, and Murphy’s doubtful designation offers little hope for New Orleans to correct their perimeter accuracy tonight.
Nets at Pelicans pick, best bet
We’ll be going Under 228.5 total points tonight. The available personnel make a high-scoring affair unlikely, even against these defenses. New Orleans’ spacing is the clearest concern. Zion can punish single coverage, but Brooklyn has more incentive to wall off his driving lanes if Murphy is unavailable. The resulting kickouts still need to become made jumpers, and the Pelicans’ season-long shooting gives us reason to doubt the efficiency of this type of offense.
On the other end, Demin’s return is helpful, but not entirely encouraging. Brown is unavailable, and Traore’s calf issues could keep him out of this game. The Nets are shooting just 34.4% from deep, which also doesn’t provide concrete reassurance of their offensive prowess.
The only argument against this Under is that neither team’s defense has been good. New Orleans allows 122.4 PPG, while Brooklyn allows 115.7. Yves Missi’s absence leaves the Pelicans without a stable rim protector, and they’ll miss that size against Randle and Day’Ron Sharpe’s interior pressure.
I’m expecting an ugly affair tonight between these two teams.
