Old school, in-state rivals will meet up this evening at Haas Pavilion. There’s buzz for the first time in years for #21 USC (2-0). Still, that hype needs to translate wins. Wednesday presents the Trojans with their first major test of the season, a road date with Cal (2-1). The Golden Bears are a squad looking to earn a major resume booster tonight. Which side has the edge in this West Coast clash?
USC enters this one as 8.5-point favorites (-115) over Cal. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Trojans and Golden Bears.
USC vs. Cal prediction, preview
Alijah Arenas is the headliner for Southern California, and it’s easy to see why. The guard is averaging a whopping 25.5 points over his first two games, winning Big Ten Player of the Week in the process. At 6’7″ with terrific playmaking skills, the freshman is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. This isn’t a one-man show, either. The Trojans also feature Rodney Rice (23.5 PPG, 9.0 APG), forming arguably the nation’s top backcourt duo. Up front, the highly touted Ratliff brothers (Adonis and Darius) provide rebounding, rim protection and floor-spacing ability.
If there’s one area where USC could improve, it’s perimeter defense. Teams are shooting 35.7% from three-point range against Southern Cal this season. That nearly led to an upset on Sunday, when Wichita State knocked down over 47% of its shot attempts from deep. Luckily for the Trojans, they wield the nation’s eighth-tallest roster in terms of average height (79.3″). That tends to provide a higher floor from night to night than shorter squads.
Preventing the three-ball will be crucial this evening. Cal is knocking down 42.6% of its shots from beyond the arc, 29th-best in college basketball. It’s no fluke, either; the team ranked 30th in that category last season (36.9%). This is a fairly diversified offensive attack, with four different players averaging double-digit points per game. The duo of Michael Cooper (19.7 PPG) and Nojus Indrusaitis (18.7 PPG) have been effective to start the season.
The guard play should be solid in Berkeley, but the rest of this roster is questionable at best. Starting center Lee Dort (ankle) is sidelined, leaving an already thin frontcourt without a key contributor. That’s meant more minutes for returning player Sammie Yeanay, delivering decent results (11.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG). Regardless, the Golden Bears come into this one with a clear disadvantage on the boards. They rank 276th in offensive rebounding rate (25.8%) and 351st in block rate (2.3%). Teams aren’t afraid to crash the glass or drive to the rim against Cal.
USC vs. Cal pick, best bet
There’s no question that the Golden Bears can put up points. Still, that’s not enough when going up against the elite duo of Arenas and Rice. To make matters worse, USC possesses a significant leg up inside the paint. Dort’s absence only makes things more difficult for California. In a hostile road environment, the Trojans should pull away during the second half.
