Last season, the Washington Wizards and the Indiana Pacers were the only two teams to finish with fewer than 20 wins, but both were expected to improve, with Anthony Davis returning for the Wizards (who also added first overall pick AJ Dybantsa) and Tyrese Haliburton back in action for the Pacers.
So far, both have improved, but only barely: Washington currently holds the 10th seed at 4-7, and Indiana is 3-8. The teams will meet tonight at 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Reece Beekman (shoulder), Justin Champagnie (foot), Tristan Vukčević (hip), and Jamir Watkins (ACL) will miss tonight’s game for the Wizards, though of the four, Champagnie is the only one who has played real minutes this season. Haliburton (hamstring), Johnny Furphy (ACL), and Ben Sheppard (meniscus) remain out for the Pacers, with T.J. McConnell (hamstring) questionable; of those four, only Haliburton has seen significant court time.
Still, Indiana is a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-143 Moneyline), with the point total set to 228.5. Washington is +121 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this battle between 2025/26 bottom-feeders and offer a prediction.
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers preview, prediction
Despite losing four straight games by at least seven points each, the Wizards should feel pretty satisfied with the start of the season so far, as Dybantsa (16.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game on 43-27-77 shooting splits) has shown lots of flashes and Davis (25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per contest) has looked healthy. Alex Sarr’s and Tre Johnson’s development have stalled somewhat, but with Kyshawn George’s emergence as an above-average starter, Washington has at least two members of its future core locked in. All in all, the Wizards have had the league’s eighth-worst offense but just its 15th-worst defense, thanks in large part to Davis’ dominance.
The Pacers, meanwhile, started off 2-2 with Haliburton in the lineup, but since he went down, they’ve managed to go just 1-7. On the bright side, Haliburton had started off the season well, averaging 21.8 points and 9.5 assists per game, but Pascal Siakam hasn’t been quite the scorer he was in 2025/26 and Ivica Zubac hasn’t been worth the fifth overall pick that Indiana ultimately gave up to acquire him. The Pacers have been slightly better on both offense (21st) and defense (15th) than Washington, but they’ve taken a dip on both sides of the ball since Haliburton’s injury.
Wizards at Pacers pick, best bet
Both of these teams have solid interior play, as each has gotten to the basket at about a league-average rate and nailed at least 70% of its layups, although Indiana hasn’t gotten to the rim quite as effectively since Haliburton’s injury. In the long term, I might slightly favor the Wizards to maintain that, given that they were the better finishing team in 2025/26 and added Davis, who has nailed 74.5% of his shots within three feet of the basket throughout his career. However, the Pacers should be able to make up for that deficit somewhat on the other end, as they’ve done a better job stopping teams from getting to the rim, and even though Davis is a better individual rim protector than Zubac is, I trust their perimeter stoppers more.
Both were among the worst rebounding teams in basketball in 2025/26, and in that respect, little has changed; Washington ranks 26th so far in rebounding percentage and Indiana 29th (28th since Haliburton’s injury). Individually, Davis has recorded the fourth-lowest rebounding percentage of his career and Zubac his lowest since 2021/22. So far, the Pacers have been better in transition, and they actually lead the league in opponent fast-break points per game since Haliburton went down. The Wizards have been more disciplined, a reversal of 2025/26, but Indiana has been better at getting to the charity stripe.
Shooting will matter more for the Pacers, as they rank 15th in three-point attempts per game and Washington 27th, but neither team has been very efficient with its looks, ranking 29th (Wizards) and 24th (Indiana) in three-point percentage. I’d expect Washington to benefit somewhat more from shooting variance normalization, given that it has connected on wide-open looks at an unsustainably poor 28.2% rate, but the Pacers have been slightly better at generating open looks, even without Haliburton. Defensively, the Wizards have been extremely exploitable, giving up the fourth-most wide-open threes, and both teams have gotten quite fortunate that opponents haven’t hit very many of their looks.
These are two of the worst teams in the league, so I have few expectations for either, but even without Haliburton, Indiana is further along in its rebuilding project. The Pacers have consistently produced higher-quality shots, have been better at closing out on opposing shooters, and they’ve fought harder to get back in transition, all of which should be more sustainable for long-term success than Washington’s midrange-heavy offensive game. Especially with its home crowd behind it, Indiana should take this one relatively convincingly.
