So far, the Western Conference has been the slugfest it was widely expected to be at the start of the season. The Memphis Grizzlies were the NBA’s last remaining undefeated team, but even at 7-3, they’d still be in just a Play-In Tournament place if the season ended today. The Denver Nuggets currently hold the 10th seed at 5-4.
These Western Conference heavyweights will meet for the first time this season at 8 p.m. ET at FedEx Forum.
The only player on Denver’s injury report is Julian Strawther (knee), who has yet to make his season debut. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have a fairly long injury list, as Karim Lopez (G-League), Scotty Pippen Jr. (back), Quinten Post (concussion), and Richie Saunders (knee) are all out, and Jahmai Mashack (G-League) and Isaiah Stewart (knee) are questionable. Of those players, Stewart has played the most minutes, ranking ninth on the team with 128.
The Nuggets are 3.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-166 Moneyline), with the point total set to 230.5. Memphis is +140 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction
Denver has been pretty inconsistent this season, as it hasn’t won more than two games in a row, but it also hasn’t lost back-to-back games yet either in a 5-4 start. Jamal Murray picked up where he left off after his 2025/26 maiden All-Star campaign, averaging 25.8 points per game and shooting 50.7% from beyond the arc, and despite his jumper not falling, Nikola Jokić still leads the league in assists per game and has supplemented it with 23.1 points and 10.8 boards per game. The Nuggets have typically had among the league’s best offenses during the Jokić era, but they rank just 15th so far, and their struggles on the defensive side of the ball have continued (20th).
On the other hand, the Grizzlies have cooled down after a 6-0 start to the season, losing three of their last four games, but that’s still pretty remarkable for a team that was widely projected to miss the playoffs. Provided he stays healthy, Ty Jerome (26.7 points per game on 50-38-89 shooting splits) looks likely to make his first All-Star team, and despite shooting the ball poorly, Cameron Boozer (16.2 points and 9.7 rebounds per game) looks like an early Rookie of the Year contender. Memphis has played a pretty favorable schedule so far, but any team with the 10th-best offense and the seventh-best defense should be taken seriously.
Nuggets at Grizzlies pick, best bet
Denver should have the more physical presence inside, as it has attempted 3.1 more restricted-area shots per game than the Grizzlies have so far this season, and it has finished much more effectively, largely thanks to Jokić (74.4% on 4.3 layups per game). However, the Nuggets have given that away on the other end, conceding the sixth-most restricted-area shots per game, while Memphis has limited opponents to the eighth-fewest. To compound its mistakes, Denver has also allowed opponents to convert at the eighth-highest rate, and given that Jokić is a limited individual rim protector and Zach Edey has been a solidly above-average one, I expect that to be sustainable.
So far this season, the Grizzlies rank second in total rebounding percentage and the Nuggets 17th, which has partially been driven by Memphis’ friendly schedule, but as long as Edey can stay on the floor, he’s one of the few players who can outshine Jokić on the glass. Cedric Coward is also averaging 8.4 rebounds per game as a shooting guard. Although Denver has been more careful with the ball so far this season than the Grizzlies, it’s given it right back on the other end, being one of the worst offensive transition teams. The Nuggets have gotten to the free throw line a lot while remaining very disciplined on the other end, so forcing Edey into foul trouble will be critical, especially with both of his backup centers on the injury report.
Shooting will be a lot more critical for Memphis, given that it ranks 13th in three-point attempts per game this season and Denver 28th, and it’s just as well; the Grizzlies have connected at the second-highest rate, while the Nuggets rank 13th in accuracy. I expect that to hold true in the long run, given that Memphis has produced the fifth-most uncontested treys per game and Denver the second-fewest. Both teams have allowed 19.4 wide-open triples per game, among the most in the league, so they could both tighten up their defending, but I like the Grizzlies to maintain their shooting edge because of their superior shot selection.
Despite the fact that Memphis has cooled down as of late, it still has the solid defensive infrastructure to limit Denver’s presence on the interior, and in Jerome, Cam Spencer, and Coward, it has several tough shot-makers. I expect Jokić to start hitting his shots at some point, but his free throw rate is a career-low, which could provide a respite for the foul-prone Edey. As long as Boozer, Jaylen Wells, and Javon Small don’t all go cold at the same time like they did against the Oklahoma City Thunder, betting on the home team at plus-money is a sensible play.
