San Antonio’s young core is giving the Spurs plenty to feel good about. Chicago’s is still trying to figure out how to play together. The Spurs enter Wednesday’s trip to United Center at 9-2, chasing their 10th consecutive win against a Bulls team that has lost seven straight. Tipoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, with San Antonio favored by 15.5 points (-105) on DraftKings Sportsbook and the total at 238.5.
Chicago has listed Caleb Wilson, Norman Powell, and Zach Collins as Questionable, with Tobe Akawa Out. San Antonio has listed Devin Vassell Questionable, with Tobias Harris and Jayden Quintance Out.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls preview, prediction
San Antonio’s biggest change is giving Dylan Harper a starting role alongside De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. The triple-guard configuration adds another downhill creator after last season’s Finals run, and Harper has justified the promotion: 18 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.4 APG on 51% shooting, up from 11.8 PPG in 22.6 MPG as a rookie. Perhaps the Spurs have taken inspiration from OKC’s previous three-guard starting lineup in Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder, which was massively successful and boasted a +26 net rating that season.
Castle’s development has been less straightforward. His rebounding has improved from 5.3 to 6.1 RPG, but his scoring and assists have fallen to 14.3 PPG and 5.2 APG, with just 39.2% shooting. There’s still work to do as he adjusts to sharing creation duties. Fortunately, Victor Wembanyama has been absurd: 30.1 PPG, 11.9 RPG, and 4.5 BPG, including 40 points and nine blocks in Monday’s win over Phoenix. His stat lines have been comical this season, as highlighted by an unbelievable 52 point, 24 rebound, and eight block game in a win against the Mavericks on November 4th.
Chicago is either just outright bad or having trouble adjusting to Thiago Splitter. Or maybe both? Splitter’s system has emphasized collective offensive rebounding and perimeter pressure. The results have been bad. The Bulls are conceding 129.3 PPG, which is the worst mark in the league. Splitter hasn’t made up his mind about the lineup, either, with several starters’ minutes fluctuating. He has also experimented with staggering Josh Giddey alongside the reserves. Matas Buzelis has struggled as more pick-and-roll opportunities go to Wilson, dropping from 16.3 PPG and 34.9% three-point shooting last season to 13.6 PPG and 29.5%. His minutes have declined from 29.2 to 25.8 MPG, too. That’s an early regression in production, but we’re still too early in the season to really know what’s going on.
Spurs at Bulls pick, best bet
Chicago’s defensive approach – or lack thereof – presents a particularly difficult problem against this Spurs lineup. Pressure and switching require quick decisions behind the initial defender. With Fox, Harper, and Castle available to attack, San Antonio can prod the Bulls’ defense in multiple places. If Chicago switches a smaller defender onto Wembanyama, that’s a problem. If Chicago sends help, it can’t rotate fast enough to keep up with the ball as it swings around.
The Bulls already surrender 53.3 paint points per game, ranking 27th. San Antonio should be able to easily manufacture efficient offense. Harper’s ability to maintain 51% shooting while taking on a larger workload is especially useful here. He gives the Spurs another offensive option who can attack slow switches or lapses in coverage.
Chicago is also struggling to convert looks from three. They’re shooting a league-worst 27.2% from deep. Their lack of consistent perimeter shooting caps their offensive upside, and also means that San Antonio’s defenders don’t need to overcommit to the Bulls’ shooters, which means that they’ll be able to cheat inside the perimeter.
San Antonio, for as good as they’ve been, are only 5-6 ATS. Their win streak and record alone doesn’t justify laying a massive 15.5, but due to how bad the Bulls have been on both ends, it feels reasonable. Chicago simply lacks reliable perimeter shooting and any semblance of defense to put up much of a fight tonight. The Spurs have, at minimum, the second best player in the league, and should easily dismantle this discombobulated Bulls roster.
