Eight teams remain in the race to win the NCAA Tournament after the madness of the opening three rounds has subsided. As the stakes continue to be magnified, the Iowa Hawkeyes will be facing off with the Illinois Fighting Illini in this Elite Eight matchup to earn a spot representing the South Region.
This is the second time these two opponents have faced off this season. On January 11, Illinois produced a 75-69 victory over Iowa. This was a wire-to-wire win by the Fighting Illini in which they stretched the lead to as many as 18 points. But plenty has changed on both teams since this matchup, and they will face off against each other with even greater stakes.
Looking at the odds for the NCAA Tournament matchup. Illinois enters as a 6.5-point favorite and holds -305 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Iowa holds +245 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the game total set at 138.5
Iowa vs. Illinois prediction, preview
The Iowa Hawkeyes hold a 24-12 record on the season,and went just 10-10 in Big Ten Conference play. But Ben McCollum’s squad has hit its stride at the right time and masterfully executed its gameplay to remain alive at this stage of the tournament. Iowa defeated Clemson 67-61 in the opening round, took down Florida 73-72 in the Round of 32, and picked up the rivalry win over Nebraska with a 77-71 win in the most recent game. On the season, the Hawkeyes have gone 21-15 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 20 of the 36 games played.
Bennett Stirtz headlines the production for the Hawkeyes, posting averages of 19.7 points and 4.4 assists per game on the season. He led the Big Ten with 37.7 minutes per game this year and has played all 120 possible minutes in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Tavion Banks adds 10.4 points and a team-high 4.7 rebounds, while Alvaro Folgueiras contributes 8.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. Cooper Koch, Cam Manyawu, Kael Combs, and Tate Sage also play key roles.
As a team, Iowa is scoring 75.0 points per game, which ranks 202nd among the 365 qualifying D1 programs. The Hawkeyes also rank 31st in offensive rating, 22nd in team field goal percentage, and 89th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 66.1 points per game against Iowa, which ranks 18th in the country. They also rank 116th in defensive rating, 272nd in opponent field goal percentage, and 181st in opponent three-point percentage.
The Illinois Fighting Illini hold a 27-8 overall record on the season. They cruised past Penn with a 105-70 win in the opening round, comfortably beat VCU 76-55 in the Round of 32, and held off Houston in a 65-55 win in their previous game. Illinois showed signs of promise all year, but looks to be playing its best basketball at the right time. On the season, Illinois has gone 21-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone 15-20 to the over/under.
Keaton Wagler leads the team with 17.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, shooting 41.1% from downtown. David Mirkovic adds 13.7 points and a team-high eight rebounds per game, while Andrej Stojakovic pours in 13.5 points and 4.4 rebounds of his own. Kylan Boswell and Tomislav Ivisic also average double digits, while Zvonimir Ivisic, Ben Humrichous, and Jake Davis also play key roles in the rotation.
Brad Underwood’s squad leads the country in offensive rating and ranks 21st in scoring by pouring in 84.2 points per game. Illinois also ranks 103rd in field goal percentage, 115th in three-point percentage, and launches the 12th-most perimeter shots per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.0 points per game against the Fighting Illini, which ranks 55th in the country. They also rank 79th in defensive rating, 28th in opponent field goal percentage, and 38th in opponent three-point percentage.
Iowa vs. Illinois pick, best bet
Both of these teams have been extremely impressive to start the NCAA Tournament. Illinois has looked the part of a potential title team and mowed through its opponents to this point. The Fighting Illini more than matched Houston’s physicality in the previous game, out-rebounding them 43-34 and stretching the lead to as many as 18.
On the other side of the matchup, Iowa has masterfully executed its game plan for each matchup and held control of the pace of play all across this tournament. Clemson, Florida, and Nebraska are each statement wins. While the 12 losses stand out as a blemish on the overall resume, Iowa ranks 35th in strength of schedule and will not be intimidated by any opponent.
When these teams faced off the first time this season, Illinois jumped out to a 29-11 lead in the first half. Iowa was never able to climb out of the hole that it dug. However, the Hawkeyes cut the deficit to 11 by halftime and outscored the Fighting Illini by five in the second half.
Illinois is the more talented team in this matchup. But so was Florida by a notable margin, and Iowa had no problem controlling that matchup and leading for 66% of the game. The pace of play will be a significant storyline to monitor. Iowa prefers to play at a controlled tempo and limit teams from getting out in transition. Illinois is also completely comfortable with this, and it is something that could backfire if it willingly play its style of game.
6.5 points is a notable spread and one that I am backing Iowa to be able to cover in this matchup. The Hawkeyes lost by six points the first time they played, even despite a disastrous start to the game. Head coach Ben McCollum has put forth impressive game plans and the team has executed them all perfectly throughout the tournament. Expect this to be a matchup that goes down to the wire, and for 6.5 to be too significant a margin to lay in favor of Illinois. Bennett Stirtz will make his case as to why he is the most talented player on the floor, and Iowa will have a clear effort in controlling the pace of play throughout. Count on this game coming down to the wire and for this 6.5-point number to be too significant.
