On Monday, I broke down two systems. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes a pick for Friday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to that game.
One of the two systems that was highlighted earlier in the week, over on total when home favorite is on second leg of back-to-back, is not in play on Friday. The play we made on that system to start the week did not hit, but you’d still be 2-1 this week if you back this system in the three games which it was in play.
The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Home favorites ATS after not playing the previous day
This season, this system is an even 267-267-7. But before this past week, this system wasn’t at all worth consideration. In the last seven days, home favorites have gone 15-8 ATS after not playing the previous day. We’re giving this play a heat check
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE MARCH 18
System – 8-8
My Picks – 0-1
SYSTEM PICK FOR MARCH 22
This system has been in play 16 times since we last checked in, and there are five more games to choose from on Friday:
- MIN vs. CLE
- SAS vs. MEM
- MIA vs. NOP
- GSW vs. IND
- LAL vs. PHI
Two teams stand out for me in this grouping: San Antonio and Miami.
The Spurs haven’t been home favorites often, but they’re 4-1 against the spread when they’ve been in this setting. This is also the first time these two teams have met with San Antonio playing as the favorite. Being without Ja Morant (out) and Desmond Bane (doubtful) will do that, though. Be sure about Bane before moving on this play. Given the tag and where the spread lies, he seems to be a no-go. Memphis might not swing back to being a favorite if he were to play, but I would think the spread shrinks at least.
Speaking of being short-handed, it seems New Orleans will be, as well. Hopefully Brandon Ingram is able to bounce back quickly, but given the uncertainty of the injury and this being a back-to-back, he also seems likely to be out. (No New Orleans injury report as of writing.) With him out and Bam Adebayo (questionable) possibly returning, Miami is set to make things tough for Zion Williamson and company. My only caveat here is it would be ideal to get this number at 2.5 instead of the current 3. Still, Miami is 6-4 ATS this season when playing as a home favorite after a win, so this being a good setting helps my thoughts on that number.
PICKS: MIA -3; SA -6.5
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
