The three B’s of the Premier League are back in business; after Bournemouth managed to bounce back with three consecutive victories to crawl its way back from the fringes of the relegation zone, Brighton, Brentford, and the Cherries are all back inside the top eight.
Two of the B’s will play each other on at 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) on England’s south coast, when the Seagulls host the Bees in an all-top six clash.
Brighton is a -110 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and Brentford is +280. There are +290 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this B-B battle and provide my favorite bet.
Brighton vs. Brentford Best Bet:
- Brighton Moneyline (-110): On paper, the Seagulls aren’t a perfect team, but Bart Verbruggen has kept 11 clean sheets in 17 matches for club and country this season and Brighton hasn’t given up a goal at home since September 5. Beating Brighton requires perfection, and Brentford makes a few too many mistakes in the build-up to qualify as that. The Seagulls will keep the pressure on Arsenal and Man City.
Brighton vs. Brentford prediction, pick
The Seagulls made quite the statement to open the season, picking up a 4-0 win over Aston Villa, and they’ve hardly looked back since, thrashing Coventry City 5-0, Arsenal 3-0, Sunderland 2-0, Crystal Palace 5-0, and Manchester City 1-0 to keep the pressure on the Gunners and Citizens in the title fight, although they lost to Liverpool and Chelsea. Brighton has also made light work of the Conference League so far, picking up shutout wins over both Kaunas and Getafe. The Bees have only lost to the Reds in the league, but they’ve drawn five matches, tied for the most in the league with Leeds and Hull, both of whom drew against Brentford. Both teams have gotten knocked out of the EFL Cup; the Seagulls lost a penalty shootout to Manchester City, and the Bees were eliminated by Sunderland.
Brighton has a young and well-rounded attack. 23-year-old Yasin Ayari, 19-year-old Charalampos Kostoulas, and 21-year-old Jack Hinshelwood join 35-year-old Pascal Groß on three goals, while Maxim De Cuyper (25) and Malick Yalcouye (20) have two each. Groß also has four assists, De Cuyper has three, and Kostoulas, Diego Gómez, and Georginio Rutter all have two each. The Seagulls’ attack is legitimate; only Manchester City has produced more xG of chances this season than Brighton, and no team has scored more goals. The Seagulls also rank third in shots and shots on target, and they’ve produced the most goals and second-most xG from set pieces. On the surface, Brighton has been somewhat more gettable defensively, allowing the ninth-most xG from the sixth-fewest shots and shots on target, and it’s been the worst team against set pieces. However, the Seagulls have forced the most high turnovers, and most importantly, they have arguably the league’s best goalkeeper between the sticks. Bart Verbruggen leads the Premier League so far in goals prevented and ranks second in save percentage.
Brentford definitely has a chance, though. The Bees have both a well-rounded squad and youth, with Kevin Schade (three goals) leading the team and Igor Thiago, Keane Lewis-Potter, and Vitaly Janelt contributing two each. Plus, Thiago and Jaidon Anthony have a pair of assists. Altogether, Brentford has both generated solid chances and finished well, managing the sixth-most xG and scoring the fourth-most goals from the 10th-most shots (ninth-fewest on target). Like Brighton, the Bees have also been strong from set pieces. They’ve paired that attack with a strong defense, conceding the ninth-fewest xG and the fourth-fewest goals despite allowing the sixth-most shots (ninth-most on target), in part because they’ve forced shots from outside the box at among the highest rates. Brentford has won ground duels at the league’s second-lowest rate, but it’s also done a solid job forcing high turnovers, and it’s been far less vulnerable against set pieces than the Seagulls have. Caoimhín Kelleher is closer to average than great, but average has been sufficient for the Bees to remain in the fight for a European place.
This match could be pretty close, as Brentford has the finishing quality to make Brighton pay for its tendency to give up high-quality looks (a league-high 78.9% shot-in-box percentage). Even for a goalkeeper as good as Verbruggen, 11 clean sheets in 18 appearances across all competitions could be unsustainably good. In the end, though, the Bees haven’t been quite clinical enough with their passes, completing them at the third-lowest rate, and the Seagulls are so hard to beat at home. They haven’t given up a goal at the American Express Stadium since September 5, and I think they’ll win even if Verbruggen concedes.
