Last season, Chelsea entered the final day of the Premier League season needing just a win against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light to qualify for at least the Europa Conference League. The Blues lost, sending the Black Cats to the Europa League in the best finish by any newly-promoted side since Wolves also finished seventh in 2018/19 and missing out on European competition entirely.
Chelsea will be hoping to get its redemption at 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local), when it once again visits the Stadium of Light to face a home side that desperately needs a result.
Despite the fact that Sunderland won both fixtures last season, the Blues are +100 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Black Cats are +255. A draw is available at +270.
Below, I’ll break down this clash and provide my favorite bet.
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Best Bet:
- Chelsea Win and Both Teams to Score (+275): Three of Chelsea’s nine Premier League games this season have resulted in a Blues win with both teams scoring, and three of Sunderland’s nine have resulted in a Black Cats loss with both teams scoring (+200 implied odds for both). Although Sunderland has been quite poor with its finishing, Chelsea gives up lots of quality opportunities, and the Blues’ elite finishing should be enough to put multiple past Robin Roefs.
Sunderland vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
It’s been a nightmarish domestic season for Sunderland, which hasn’t picked up a win in the league since Matchweek 2 and sits bottom of the table after a 3-1 loss to Coventry City its last time out. Although the Black Cats have faced a difficult schedule, playing the top three teams in the table, defeat against the Sky Blues was inexcusable. They’ve done better in Europe, winning two of their first three matches in the Europa League as of the time of this writing, but they’re still at risk of suffering the drop, with the fourth-shortest odds of going down. On the other hand, Chelsea has been inconsistent, dropping a 2-0 result at home against Tottenham Hotspur before bouncing back with a 2-0 win over Manchester United to reclaim fourth place in the table through nine matches. The Blues don’t have European competition to contend with, and they were eliminated from the Carabao Cup by Liverpool, so they’ll only be focused on the league and the FA Cup from here on out.
Most of Sunderland’s issues have come in the attack. Only four different players have found the back of the net, and while main striker Brian Brobbey has three, they all came in the 5-3 loss to Manchester City on September 20. Only Brobbey, Nilson Angulo, and Wilson Isidor have scored from open play, as both of Enzo Le Fée’s came from the penalty spot. All in all, the Black Cats have produced the 10th-most xG, but they’ve scored the second-fewest goals because they’ve finished so poorly. They also rank in the bottom half of the table in shots, shots on target, touches in the box, and pass completion percentage, so they’ll need to rely on set pieces and luck. Additionally, Sunderland has conceded the fourth-most xG and the third-most goals, although those have come from the seventh-fewest shots on target. Though the Black Cats have at least won ground duels at the fourth-highest rate, they rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive counting stats, and they’ve forced the fourth-fewest high turnovers leading to a shot. In between the sticks, goalkeeper Robin Roefs was a hero in 2025/26, but he ranks second-to-last in goals prevented and dead last in save percentage so far. With some regression to the mean from Roefs, Sunderland should climb the table eventually — it ranks 11th in the expected table — but it doesn’t look likely to qualify for the Europa League again.
Chelsea, meanwhile, has one of the most dangerous attacks in the league, as summer signing Morgan Rogers and João Pedro have five goals each and Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto have three each. João Pedro is likely out for this match after picking up a thigh injury a few weeks ago, but the Blues should be able to put pressure on the Black Cats’ defense nonetheless, thanks to their depth. To be fair, Chelsea would rank third-to-last in xG if João Pedro’s 3.03 xG were removed, but it’s finished clinically, scoring the third-most goals and putting the most shots on target. However, the Blues have given some of that back in the defense, as they’ve allowed the fifth-most goals from the eighth-fewest xG and second-most shots on target, and their back line likely won’t be any better with Reece James and Maxence Lacroix both set to miss significant time. Chelsea has won ground duels at the highest rate, and it’s produced the fifth-most high turnovers, but it has done quite a poor job playing the offsides trap and has been somewhat susceptible against set pieces. It could get a bit of a boost if Emiliano Martínez returns from his facial fracture to replace Mike Penders, but even the Argentine has only kept one clean sheet in the league.
The Blues give up enough high-quality chances that Sunderland could find a goal despite how sloppily it has finished this season, and I can’t imagine that James’ and Lacroix’s absences will help. However, Chelsea has enough in the attack, even without João Pedro, to put one past the Black Cats’ mediocre defense. Three of the Blues’ nine Premier League games have resulted in wins in which both teams have scored, and three of Sunderland’s nine have been losses in which both teams have scored, making +275 a favorable bet.
