Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has thrown at least four touchdown passes in three straight games. Against Tennessee, he threw five, mixed in three interceptions and finally escaped with a 43–36 overtime win. Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a miserable Sunday of his own, throwing four interceptions in a 16–0 loss at Tampa Bay. Burrow arrives at the Bernabéu having repeatedly thrown Cincinnati out of trouble. Penix has to get Atlanta moving again after an afternoon in which they never scored. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Cincinnati Bengals in Madrid.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Most all stats provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.
Falcons vs. Bengals (Madrid) prediction, preview
Cincinnati should continue throwing on first down, where Burrow has completed a league-best 75.2% of his passes with ten touchdowns. Atlanta has pressured quarterbacks on 41.6% of dropbacks, but Burrow already releases 55.4% of his attempts within 2.5 seconds. The Falcons will have to reach him quickly. Edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is eligible after his suspension, though a back injury leaves him questionable; Atlanta plans to use him on a limited pass-rush workload if he plays. Linebacker Divine Deablo is questionable, too. With those roles unsettled, the Falcons have more to establish than whether Pearce dresses.
Atlanta has allowed no touchdowns on throws traveling at least 20 air yards. Burrow can work underneath that depth with receiver Tee Higgins, who leads the league with 26 catches for 450 yards on throws traveling 10–19 yards. Cincinnati should make Atlanta defend those completions repeatedly. Higgins and fellow receiver Ja’Marr Chase give Burrow opportunities to advance the ball before he looks for tight end Mike Gesicki near the goal line; Gesicki has scored in six of seven games. Running back Chase Brown has also contributed through the air. He caught eight passes for 46 yards against Tennessee despite failing to exceed 55 rushing yards for a fourth straight game.
Atlanta can ask considerably more of running back Bijan Robinson on the ground. He has averaged a league-best 6.5 YPC on outside-zone runs, although Cincinnati has stuffed a league-high 31.7% of opponents’ attempts on that concept. Robinson will have to work through some early stops. The Bengals have been much less convincing when defending the run from light boxes, allowing backs 5.1 YPC while using those looks on a league-high 39.9% of running-back carries. Tennessee’s Tony Pollard rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns against them Sunday. With fellow back Brian Robinson Jr. on injured reserve, Atlanta has good reason to lean on Bijan and make Cincinnati finish those tackles.
Bengals vs. Falcons (Madrid) pick, best bet
Penix still has to complete passes when Cincinnati stops Robinson. Tight end Kyle Pitts can attack linebackers Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter, who have allowed 49 completions on 62 targets for 607 yards. Receiver Drake London has averaged 3.60 YPRR against Cover 1 and Cover 3 combined, Cincinnati’s most frequent coverages. Getting the ball to them depends heavily on Atlanta’s interior against defensive tackles Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen: Penix has completed 73% of his clean-pocket throws and just 28.6% under pressure. Center Ryan Neuzil and guards Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom have each allowed eight pressures or fewer this season. They have protected well enough to give Atlanta a credible answer to that concern, though Lawrence and Allen can still ruin possessions. Cincinnati will also be without safety Kyle Dugger.
I expect Atlanta to score through Robinson and the Pitts–London matchups, with enough protection to help Penix recover from last week’s performance. Burrow has the more convincing passing case, particularly on first down and through Higgins at intermediate depth. I’m taking over 52.5 at -108. Penix’s pressure failures remain the risk that matters most; Atlanta’s protection and Cincinnati’s coverage weaknesses give me reason to expect a better afternoon from him.
Best bet: Over 52.5 (-108).
Projected score: Bengals 30, Falcons 27.
