Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 10

A glorious week out on the gridiron approaches once more, accompanied this week by more devastating, long-term injury news for many of our favorite marquee fantasy players—Puka Nacua and Lamar Jackson, namely, here. The Jaguars are the cream rising to just about the top, here, and the Bengals are back in midseason form as fantasy darlings. Lots hasn’t gone right this year; lot’s still has plenty of time to correct or mutate or sharpen itself as we look to maximize the potential of our fantasy lineups, here with the fantasy playoffs just a month off, now.

And so—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 10 edition. The turning-point edition.

For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 10. Here are my other offerings in this edition:

• Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 10
• Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 10
• Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 10
• Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 10

All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football Week 10: Top five running backs to start

Jaylen Warren, PIT (at Bengals)

Jaylen Warren found plenty of room to accelerate against Cincinnati in Week 3, rushing 11 times for 74 yards when the Bengals deployed their sub-packages. Defensive coordinator Al Golden has used those lighter groupings against 72% of opposing running-back rushes this season, and backs have averaged 4.7 yards per carry against them. Warren, meanwhile, has ripped through sub-packages for 524 yards on 87 carries (6.0 YPC). Against light boxes, he’s gained 256 yards on 35 attempts (7.3 YPC).

That Week 3 eruption came with Rico Dowdle sidelined, and Warren played 90.3% of Pittsburgh’s snaps. Since Dowdle returned, Warren’s share of the backfield touches has slipped from 61.5% to 58.3% to 54.6%. He’s still making those opportunities count: Warren leads backs with at least 100 opportunities at 6.9 yards per touch, and 53% of his runs have exceeded their expected yardage.

We featured Warren in Week 7, when he piled up 137 scrimmage yards and 16.7 PPR points. He followed with 143 rushing yards against Cleveland. Dowdle will claim carries and goal-line chances, but Warren’s efficiency against Cincinnati’s personnel makes him a compelling RB2 again.

Javonte Williams, DAL (vs. 49ers)

The Cowboys have handed Javonte Williams a mountain of work since shifting toward the run. Through Week 6, Dallas passed on 68.3% of its plays in neutral situations; over the next three games, those rates fell to 50%, 51% and 53.7%. Williams amassed 74 touches during that stretch, including the 25-carry, 155-yard rampage through Philadelphia that rewarded our Week 7 recommendation with 21.5 PPR points.

Nobody in the league has carried more often inside the five-yard line. Williams has taken 21 such attempts, 91% of Dallas’ team total, and scored nine touchdowns on them. Against Indianapolis last week, he paired 101 rushing yards and a score with four catches for 23 yards on five targets. Dak Prescott can lean on him underneath when a run stalls or the pocket tightens.

San Francisco presents an especially nasty test. The 49ers rank first in rushing EPA allowed and have limited running backs to 3.47 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns. Williams may have to grind for every yard against that front. His recent workload and command of Dallas’ goal-line carries are valuable enough to start him through the resistance.

Kyren Williams, LAR (at Cardinals)

Matthew Stafford could lean on Kyren Williams’ hands while the Rams reorganize a receiving corps missing Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Jordan Whittington, all on injured reserve. Williams has run a route on 52% of the Rams’ dropbacks this season and drawn a target on 24% of those routes. Stafford already knows where to find an inviting outlet in his backfield.

Sean McVay’s usage against Washington, however, reveals how much the backfield can shift from week to week. Williams ran 17 routes on 45 dropbacks (38%) and drew four targets. He claimed 19 of the backs’ 32 carries and targets (59.4%), while Blake Corum collected 13. Over the past four weeks, Williams has turned 66 touches into 308 yards; Corum has gained 292 on 51. When we featured Williams in Week 7, Corum outcarried him, yet Williams still produced 18.1 PPR points.

The Rams used three tight ends on 55% of their plays last week and posted a 57.5% success rate from that grouping. Arizona just allowed Seattle’s Jadarian Price four catches for 54 yards. As McVay reshapes the passing game around his remaining playmakers, Williams’ ability to earn targets can help him capitalize on those underneath opportunities.

Zach Charbonnet, SEA (at Raiders)

Zach Charbonnet has returned from his ACL injury with an appetite for contact. Through two games, he’s averaging 3.14 yards after contact per carry and has forced missed tackles at a 27% rate. Now he meets a Raiders defense that has permitted the eighth-highest missed-tackle rate and 13th-most yards after contact per attempt over its last five games. Charbonnet has the power to turn Las Vegas’ missed tackles into extra chunks of yardage.

Against Arizona last week, he carried 16 times for 77 yards and caught one of two targets. Seattle also trusted him on nine of its 12 snaps on third-and-3 or longer, and he ran 13 routes on 29 dropbacks (45%). Jadarian Price remains involved, and has arguably put up impressive-enough numbers under the hood that he should get more touches, but Seattle’s commitment to Charbonnet’s third-down work creates opportunities beyond just early-down carries.

The Raiders have struggled to hold up inside, where San Francisco battered them for 190 yards on 43 team carries last week. Seattle must contend with an interior disruption of its own with guard Quenton Nelson out. Even accounting for that absence, Las Vegas’ five-game defensive profile is hard to resist: the Raiders have allowed the league’s highest rushing success rate and fourth-highest explosive-run rate. Charbonnet belongs in RB2 lineups.

Derrick Henry, BAL (vs. Chargers)

When Baltimore reaches the doorstep, Derrick Henry usually takes the handoff. He has handled 16 of the Ravens’ 19 carries inside the five-yard line through Week 9, scoring seven touchdowns. Across the entire red zone, his 40 carries account for 82% of Baltimore’s total. Jacoby Brissett’s first start at quarterback carries enormous implications for Henry: every sustained drive brings the Ravens closer to those valuable attempts.

The line in front of Henry has struggled to clear a path. Without Lamar Jackson on the field, defenders have hit him at or behind the line on 58% of his runs. His 0.79 yards before contact per rush is his lowest mark since 2018, and Baltimore entered Week 9 having used 25 offensive-line combinations. Brissett’s arrival could steady the offense; the blockers still need to create space for Henry to build speed.

Jacksonville overwhelmed Baltimore last week. Henry took 12 of the Ravens’ 16 backfield opportunities in the first half, then five of 13 in the second as they fell behind; the offense never reached the red zone. The Chargers have allowed 105.5 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns to backs. With 20.8 touches per game and such a commanding share near the goal line, Henry remains a strong RB2.