A glorious week out on the gridiron approaches once more, accompanied this week by more devastating, long-term injury news for many of our favorite marquee fantasy players—Puka Nacua and Lamar Jackson, namely, here. The Jaguars are the cream rising to just about the top, here, and the Bengals are back in midseason form as fantasy darlings. Lots hasn’t gone right this year; lot’s still has plenty of time to correct or mutate or sharpen itself as we look to maximize the potential of our fantasy lineups, here with the fantasy playoffs just a month off, now.
And so—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 10 edition. The turning-point edition.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five sleeper and upside plays for fantasy football Week 10. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 10
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 10
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 10
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 10
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 10: Top five sleeper/upside plays
Kaelon Black, SF (at Cowboys)
Kyle Shanahan has found room for Black alongside Christian McCaffrey, and the rookie has made his recent carries count. Over San Francisco’s last two games, Black has averaged 11.5 carries and 66.5 rushing yards while playing 35.3% of the offensive snaps. He’s averaging 2.43 yards after contact per attempt this season, a useful trait against a Dallas defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt over its last five games.
Black’s six targets all season leave him dependent on rushing production and a possible touchdown in PPR leagues. Still, the Cowboys have also surrendered the second-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt during that five-game stretch. Ten or so carries against this front could take Black a long way.
Konata Mumpfield, LAR (at Cardinals)
We tried Mumpfield as a sleeper in Week 7 and came away with 2.5 PPR points. The Rams’ receiving room has changed dramatically since then: Puka Nacua has joined Davante Adams on injured reserve, leaving Matthew Stafford to work with a depleted group against Arizona.
Mumpfield still has to earn a larger role. He ran a route on only 44.4% of Stafford’s dropbacks last week as Los Angeles leaned on three-tight-end formations. Earlier this season, though, he averaged 2.76 yards per route against two-high coverage across Weeks 2 and 3, a small sample that at least fits a Cardinals defense that has used two-high looks on 65.5% of its snaps. Arizona has allowed the third-most yards per target to perimeter receivers this season. Mumpfield has a genuine opening to reward our patience.
Emmett Johnson, KC (at Falcons)
Kenneth Walker III missed Friday’s practice after reporting tightness in his groin, and his Sunday availability remains unsettled. If Walker sits, Johnson’s opportunity could expand considerably against a Falcons defense that has allowed the league’s highest explosive-run rate over its last five games.
Johnson has already shown what he can do with a crease. Over his last two games, the rookie has scored twice and averaged 88.5 yards from scrimmage on six touches per game, including a 73-yard receiving touchdown against Denver. He has also averaged 3.27 yards after contact per carry this season, albeit on just 26 attempts. Atlanta has permitted the third-most yards after contact per attempt over that five-game stretch. Johnson is a deep, big-play-dependent flex while Walker’s available; if Walker is inactive, I’d move him substantially higher.
Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (vs. 49ers)
Jake Ferguson’s knee injury opens a starting job for Spann-Ford, who caught two of three targets for 20 yards against Indianapolis after Ferguson went down. Dallas has leaned heavily on Ferguson as an underneath option for Dak Prescott, and Spann-Ford now has a chance to occupy some of that space.
The third-year tight end has drawn a target on 20% of his routes this season and averaged 1.33 yards per route in limited work. San Francisco has allowed the 10th-most receiving fantasy points per game to tight ends over its last five contests, so Prescott has a reason to look his way. CeeDee Lamb remains the centerpiece of this passing game, but managers digging deep at tight end can take a shot on Spann-Ford’s expanded playing time.
Mack Hollins, NE (at Lions [Munich])
Hollins returned from injured reserve last week and immediately reclaimed a substantial role, catching three of six targets for 36 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay. He has earned a target on 20.7% of his routes this season and leads New England’s wide receivers with 2.02 yards per route.
Drake Maye has used Hollins downfield, where the veteran’s 14.6-yard average depth of target ranks 11th among receivers with at least 25 targets. Detroit has allowed a league-high 34 completions of 20 or more yards, creating a path for Hollins to turn a handful of chances into a useful afternoon in Munich. A.J. Brown’s availability matters: If he returns, Hollins faces more competition for those targets. With Brown limited in practice this week, check the Patriots’ final report before setting the lineup.
