Six field goals. Arizona beat the Rams 18–16 last month without once crossing their goal line, an afternoon that remains thoroughly aggravating from this side of the rooting interest. Matthew Stafford returns without Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so Sean McVay has some rearranging to do before we can enjoy the rematch. Across from him, Carson Beck will take his first NFL snap behind a line missing two starters. Aaron Donald ought to enjoy that introduction considerably more than Beck does. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Cardinals vs. Rams prediction, preview
Stafford already knows Arizona will send extra men. The Cardinals blitzed him on 15 dropbacks in the first meeting, their season high, and now Nacua is unavailable after commanding 41 of Stafford’s 97 targets across the last three games. That’s 42.3% of his throws to redistribute. I’d begin underneath with Tyler Higbee and Kyren Williams, who have caught 28 and 36 passes, respectively, while Tutu Atwell runs at the deeper coverage. Atwell caught a 40-yarder against the Chargers. Arizona still has to defend the whole field.
McVay would waste that possibility by trying to bulldoze his way through Sunday. The Cardinals rank seventh in rushing EPA allowed and last in EPA/dropback allowed; their pass defense has been far more accommodating than their front. Williams carried only ten times in the first meeting, when Los Angeles finished below 100 rushing yards. Left guard Steve Avila’s absence makes blocking those runs harder again. I’d use Williams and Blake Corum to shorten the next down, then let Stafford attack through Higbee and Colby Parkinson against a defense conceding touchdowns on 70% of red-zone trips.
Beck must negotiate a much less forgiving front. Center Hjalte Froholdt and right guard Jon Gaines II are out, Hayden Conner takes over the snaps, and Arizona rolls out its sixth offensive-line combination. Donald can drive through that reorganized interior. Myles Garrett, questionable but expected to play, can attack from outside it. With Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson also unavailable, Beck will have to throw into coverage already anticipating plenty of Trey McBride.
Rams vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
McBride can still catch his way out of trouble. Trent McDuffie and Kam Curl are questionable, and either absence would help him against a defense that has otherwise strangled drives near the end zone (31.6% third-down conversion rate allowed; 43.3% red-zone touchdown rate allowed). Arizona has finished only 42.9% of its own red-zone visits with touchdowns. Beck has to improve that finishing while learning what an NFL rush feels like.
Stafford’s missing targets temper the margin, but Arizona has lost the blockers and outside threats that could make Beck’s debut manageable. I expect the Rams to force punts, shorten Stafford’s field and finally turn this matchup into something more enjoyable than another procession of Arizona field goals.
Best bet: Rams -9.5 (-112)
Projected score: Rams 24, Cardinals 10.
