Brock Purdy has spent the fall picking apart defenses while San Francisco’s receivers cycled through the injury report. Seventeen touchdowns, five interceptions and 8.39 yards per attempt later, Deebo Samuel finally returns from his hamstring injury, Keenan Allen begins working into the offense, and Kyle Shanahan gets to unleash them on Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed 0.10 EPA/play, 31st in the league. Purdy has been far too good to let them muddle through another afternoon of that. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction, preview
Shanahan can start by making them tackle Christian McCaffrey. Across their last five games, the Cowboys have conceded the second-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt and fourth-most yards after contact per carry. McCaffrey can chew through those failures until Dallas moves another defender toward the line; Samuel can then work behind him. Mike Evans remains out, and Allen has had only a week to learn the offense. Purdy still directs the league’s most efficient attack (+0.16 EPA/play), with the 49ers finishing an astonishing 84.6% of red-zone trips in the end zone.
Quinnen Williams has been doing his best to interrupt that sort of afternoon. He has amassed nine tackles for loss over his last four games, during which Dallas collected 12 sacks after managing five through its first five. San Francisco has allowed only eight sacks all season, though left tackle Trent Williams’ questionable shoulder makes that record less reassuring. If he cannot play, Purdy has to unload the ball sooner against a front already finding its way into backfields. McCaffrey’s rushing becomes even more important when Shanahan has to protect a replacement tackle from obvious passing downs.
Dallas can put plenty of pressure on the scoreboard, too. Dak Prescott spreads the formation on a league-high 38.3% of plays, stretching defenders across the field before CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens begin working on them. San Francisco has played single-high coverage on 67.5% of snaps since Week 6; against those looks, Pickens has drawn targets on 33% of his routes and averaged 2.66 YPRR. Prescott has a matchup to pursue if the 49ers stay with that approach.
49ers vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
And their coverage could be badly depleted. Renardo Green, Deommodore Lenoir and Upton Stout are all questionable, with Nate Hobbs out. San Francisco ranks seventh in defensive EPA/play (-0.07), but those possible absences make a quiet Prescott afternoon difficult to envision. Dallas has converted 71.4% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, third in the league. Once the Cowboys get down there, they can finish.
I expect Prescott to make San Francisco press into the fourth quarter. Dallas has its own uncertainty around Joey Porter Jr. and DaRon Bland, both questionable, with Porter expected to play—while McCaffrey faces defenders who have repeatedly conceded yards through contact. Purdy can exploit those softer downs and finish the longer possessions that Dallas has struggled to interrupt. That’s where I expect the 49ers to pull clear.
Best bet: 49ers -3.5 (-115)
Projected score: 49ers 34, Cowboys 27.
