Things are getting ugly in Indianapolis. The Colts have lost four straight, scored 17 points total across their last two games and traded left guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner last week. Jonathan Taylor’s name has surfaced in trade speculation as well, and he handled just 12 touches in last week’s 42-7 loss to Jacksonville. Now the Colts host a Dallas defense that has struggled against the run. Find out whether you should start or sit Jonathan Taylor in Week 9.
Jonathan Taylor Start or Sit Advice for Week 9
Even with the recent dip, Taylor’s season-long role is massive. He has averaged 21.1 touches per game, handled 65.5% of Indianapolis’ carries and drawn 12.2% of the team’s targets. He reached at least 20 touches in six of his first seven games before last week’s blowout.
He also owns the scoring opportunities. Taylor has 26 red zone carries and eight rushing touchdowns, and even in a lopsided loss to the Jaguars he still got two of the Colts’ three red zone carries. Seth McGowan has just five red zone carries all season.
Dallas has been generous to running backs. The Cowboys allow 27.0 PPR points per game to the position, well above the league average of 22.5, along with 4.76 yards per carry against a league mark of 4.16. They have also given up 11 total touchdowns to backs against a league average of 6.9, and opposing backfields have logged 45 red zone carries against them compared with a league average of 29.2.
That figure needs context. Dallas has faced the Giants, Baltimore, Washington, Houston, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Arizona, a group running for 36% more yards than the league average against them, so the schedule has inflated these numbers. Even with that discount, this is a defense that gives backs real room to produce. The Cowboys are also thin at the back end, with safeties Caleb Downs and P.J. Locke both working through concussions and linebacker Malachi Lawrence dealing with an ankle injury.
His receiving work adds a layer of safety. Taylor has 21 catches for 202 yards, and Dallas scores 27.4 points per game, so if Indianapolis falls behind again, he should still stay involved through the passing game.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Jonathan Taylor in Week 9
The Colts’ offense is the main obstacle. Indianapolis scores 20.1 points per game against a league average of 23.1, throws for just 174.6 yards per game and has allowed 23 sacks, well above the league mark of 17.4. Daniel Jones threw two interceptions and averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt against the Jaguars, and Anthony Richardson Sr. also got work at quarterback. Drives that stall early leave fewer chances for Taylor to finish in the end zone.
Nelson’s departure also hurts the run game directly. Losing a starting guard is a setback for a back already averaging 4.1 yards per carry, below the league average of 4.20.
Then there is the workload question. Taylor’s touches have slipped from 23 in Week 6 to 20 in Week 7 and 12 last week, and DJ Giddens and McGowan combined for 11 carries against Jacksonville. Some of that was game script in a 35-point loss, but a team trading away veterans has less reason to lean on its lead back. Taylor and head coach Shane Steichen have both maintained that he will play Sunday, and he was a full participant in practice after a rest day. Still, if the Colts start managing his snaps, his ceiling takes a hit.
Fantasy Outlook for Jonathan Taylor in Week 9
Taylor is a Strong Start in Week 9. The offense around him has fallen apart and his role carries more uncertainty than it did a month ago, but he still owns the red zone carries and a steady receiving role against a defense that has given backs plenty of room.
Lower your expectations from his early-season peak. A repeat of last week’s 12-touch outing is possible if Indianapolis falls behind early or spreads the carries around. Even so, his red zone role and receiving work keep his floor high enough to earn a lineup spot in this matchup.
Find more Week 9 fantasy football start/sit coverage here!