We’re back at the Meta APEX this weekend, as top-15 lightweights Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan collide in the main event of UFC Vegas 123.
Moicano is a -120 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Nolan is a +100 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.
Beyond traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can get more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan. Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6 for my favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC event.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Plays for UFC Vegas 123
Renato Moicano | More Than 1.5 Takedowns
Renato Moicano (21–7–1, 13–7 UFC) has struggled to get fights to the ground lately, failing to record multiple takedowns in four straight fights. But it should be noted that three of those bouts were against prolific grapplers Benoit Saint Denis, Beneil Dariush, and Islam Makhachev; in his last outing, Moicano submitted Chris Duncan in the second round.
The Brazilian fan-favorite should look to impose his high-level jiu-jitsu on Saturday, facing considerable striking and size disadvantages against rising prospect Tom Nolan (11–1, 5–1 UFC). While formidable on the feet, the Australian has a middling 58 percent takedown defense in the UFC and got taken down three times in his most recent outing against Fares Ziam. With five rounds to work with, Moicano is well-equipped to land multiple takedowns on Nolan.
Jacobe Smith | More Than 92.5 Fantasy Points
Undefeated welterweight prospect Jacobe Smith (13–0, 4–0 UFC) has had a scorching start to his UFC career: four wins, four finishes, and four performances with over 92.5 fantasy points. An NCAA Division I All-American wrestler with knockout power, Smith boasts an 85 percent pro finish rate with 10 KOs and seems teed up for another highlight-reel stoppage win over Randy Brown (20–8, 14–8 UFC). The Jamaican veteran is trending downward at 36 — dropping three of his last four fights — and heads into Saturday night with questionable durability. Five of Brown’s eight career losses have come inside the distance.
Cody Durden | More Than 2.5 Takedowns
Cody Durden (18–11–1, 7–9–1 UFC) has been on a brutal run of form, but the man can still grapple. The flyweight veteran, who averages 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, has landed 3+ takedowns in two of his last three fights — including five takedowns against submission specialist Jafel Filho earlier this year. Facing another beleaguered contender in Ode’ Osbourne (13–9, 5–7 UFC [1 NC]), Durden has a path back to the well. While Osbourne has a respectable 66 percent takedown defense in the UFC, he has gotten taken down at least three times in back-to-back fights heading into Saturday night.
Luana Santos | More Than 4:30 Control Time
Luana Santos (11–2, 6–1 UFC) is off to a dominant run in bantamweight, winning her first three fights at 135 pounds with pure grappling dominance. The high-level judoka has piled up more than 7:30 of control in each bout during that stretch, highlighted by over 12 minutes of control in her last appearance against Karol Rosa. She should once again crush her control-time total against a returning Yana Santos (17–8, 7–5 UFC), who’s ten years older and hasn’t competed in over a year. The Russian veteran has stuffed just 51 percent of takedowns in the Octagon and got controlled for over five minutes in her second-to-most-recent outing against Miesha Tate in May 2025.
Zach Reese | More Than 0.5 Knockouts
Middleweight veteran Zach Reese (10–4, 4–4 UFC [1 NC]) is still eyeing his first win of the year after opening 2026 with back-to-back losses. He’s well-positioned to get his hand raised Saturday night, and he looks poised to do so in highlight-reel fashion. The hard-hitting Reese has drawn a favorable matchup with the embattled Mickey Gall (7–7, 6–7 UFC), who’s been out of action for nearly two years and returns on a four-fight losing streak — a turbulent stretch featuring two first-round knockouts.
Lucia Szabova | More Than 94.5 Fantasy Points
Undefeated women’s flyweight Lucia Szabova (12–0, UFC Debut) is an overwhelming -650 favorite in her UFC debut against Tainara Lisboa (7–4, 2–2 UFC). A former two-division OKTAGON MMA champion, Szabova joins the promotion with a 75 percent finish rate split between knockouts and submissions. She seems poised to pad those stats against a fading veteran in Lisboa, who hasn’t fought in over a year after suffering back-to-back stoppage losses in 2025. Lisboa’s late-career inactivity has proven costly and should remain a factor Saturday night against a surging prospect eager to put the division on notice.
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How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice, and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
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Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
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