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Prediction, pick for Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith at UFC Vegas 123

Prediction, pick for Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith at UFC Vegas 123

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By: Cooper Albers

Seasoned veteran meets surging prospect on Saturday night, as welterweights Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith collide in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan inside the Meta APEX.

Brown (20–8, 14–8 UFC) has dropped three of his last four fights, most recently losing a unanimous decision to Kevin Holland at UFC 327 in April. Smith (13–0, 4–0 UFC) is fresh off a first-round knockout win over Bruce Whitehead at UFC 332 in October, his fourth finish in as many trips to the Octagon.

Smith enters as a considerable -278 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Brown is a +225 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.

Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith Fight Preview

Randy Brown

  • 20–8 (14–8 UFC)
  • 8–3(T)KO
  • 5–2 SUB

Randy Brown’s explosive hands haven’t kept him afloat in the back half of his career. At 36, he’s dropped three of his last four fights, one by stoppage, and got 30–27’d on all three scorecards in his latest loss to Kevin Holland. “Rudeboy” heads into Saturday night with a considerable size advantage — five inches in height, six in reach — and a clear experience edge over relative newcomer Jacobe Smith. Managing distance will be paramount for the veteran, especially given his questionable durability; five of Brown’s eight pro losses have come inside the distance. 

Jacobe Smith

  • 13–0 (4–0 UFC)
  • 10–0 (T)KO
  • 1–0 SUB

Jacobe Smith has yet to disappoint since earning a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in October 2024. “Cobe,” 30, has added to his highlight reel each time out, opening his promotional tenure with four straight stoppage wins. An NCAA Division I All-American wrestler with knockout power, Smith showcased his dangerous skill set in his latest win over Bruce Whitehead. After a thudding body slam, Smith swarmed his opponent with nasty ground-and-pound for the finish inside two minutes. That said, the stoppage sequence came shortly after Smith landed a controversial low blow; he’ll look to erase all doubt on Saturday against grizzled veteran Randy Brown.

Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith Pick, Best Bet

Jacobe Smith has rocketed up the 170-pound ladder with pure domination; Saturday should be no different. Despite facing size and experience disadvantages, Smith is far more formidable than his opponent Randy Brown, who’s trending downward at 36. The undefeated prospect known for memorable stoppages should live up to his billing in Las Vegas.  

Best Bet | Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ (+130)

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Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer and editor who joined DraftKings in September 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as the chief sports editor of the campus newspaper and the lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team. His previous stops include amNewYork and the New York Post.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.