Thanks to the new Systems tab on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, two plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Astros +114
Hard to believe Verlander and Scherzer have never gone toe-to-toe before. Of course, that will no longer be the case after these former teammates square off in Texas.
Since making the move south, the only difference between these two has been their sixth start. Scherzer has been lights out since he first put on a Rangers uniform. Verlander just got rocked by the Yankees — but he’d been dominant in his five starts before that.
Texas has hit for a bit more power against right-handed pitching of late (.187 ISO vs. .176), but Houston is also striking out far less against righties (16.2% strikeout rate vs. 24%). Both lineups are tough to navigate, but Verlander in a bounce-back spot at plus-money is very appealing. Plus, some promising systems are in play.
Marginal underdogs coming off a win are 13-7 over the last seven days. But what’s most staggering is the Astros are an AL-best 8-2 when playing as a road underdog against a divisional opponent and the Rangers are 9-10 as a divisional home favorite.
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Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
Orioles -143
Kyle Gibson had himself a pretty brutal start last time out. Not only that, he was facing the lowly White Sox. A less-than-ideal end to a brutal month, during which he posted a 7.89 ERA and 5.21 FIP. But while that FIP is gross on its own, when compared to his ERA it does indicate Gibson is due for some better days in the near future.
The Angels can be the team that gets him back on the right track. Over the last month of games, they have a .168 ISO and 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
From a system standpoint, over the last seven days, road teams coming off of a win are 34-18. More importantly, American League non-division road favorites are 99-66 (60%) this season. While the Angels are 6-3 as non-division home underdogs, they are a shell of themselves. Also, the Orioles are a whopping 11-2 as non-division road favorites.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
