Braden Atkinson threw for 413 yards against Texas Tech, Jesse Legree caught 240 of them, and Oregon State led 24-21 early in the fourth quarter. JaMarcus Shephard still awaits his first win as the Beavers’ head coach after losing 35-24, but his quarterback and freshman receiver certainly inconvenienced the Red Raiders. Now Bobby Kennedy brings Montana to Corvallis after beating Southern Utah, Drake, and Utah Tech at home. His Grizzlies will get their first look at FBS opposition, too. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Oregon State Beavers and the Montana Grizzlies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Oregon State vs. Montana prediction, preview
Shephard’s offense has converted eight of 30 third downs and reached the red zone only five times. His players earned 33 first downs by throwing and five by running. I’m projecting several punts between Atkinson’s big plays, particularly after facing a Texas Tech defense that ranked last among 68 Power 4 teams through Week 2. The Beavers have already shown their proclivity for the air game: the balance, as it stands, playcallingwise, is 100 passes against 44 recorded rushes. Even ahead, Shephard may have to keep asking Atkinson to throw for first downs.
Montana can ask considerably more of its running back. Eli Gillman rushed for three touchdowns against Utah Tech as Keali’i Ah Yat completed 12 passes to Brooks Davis for 151 yards. Through three games, the Grizzlies have scored only seven points off turnovers despite a plus-three turnover margin. They’ve also completed 10 of their 15 touchdown drives in under three minutes. It’s dink and dunk so far, and it’ll need to be more than that tonight.
Pease will call those plays behind an offensive line with 15 combined career starts, though. OSU’s Takari Hickle has already recorded 2.5 TFLs, and after seven punts against Utah Tech, Montana should expect an FBS front to look like an unscaleable wall. Still, the Beavers allowed Houston and Texas Tech to convert 15 of 30 third downs. Ah Yat should have some manageable third downs from Pease’s short passing game; I’d trust Davis to catch enough of those throws to keep Montana scoring.
Montana vs. Oregon State pick, best bet
Montana’s defenders, meanwhile, preserved their shutout through three quarters against Utah Tech. They also forced a goal-line fumble, and the Blazers missed field goals from 46 and 53 yards. Neither kick was easy, but I’d allow for more scoring from comparable opportunities Saturday. Legree can bypass the red zone altogether: he scored from 75 and 37 yards against Texas Tech. The Grizzlies’ secondary will face a considerably more ferocious receiver on its first road trip.
I’m backing over 55.5 and projecting Oregon State to win 38-24. Hickle should disrupt some drives, and Atkinson may endure another uneven third-down night. I still expect Montana to answer through Davis and Gillman, with both quarterbacks throwing into the second half. Against Legree, Kennedy may have to concede some of the shorter completions as he protects his secondary deep. Atkinson ought to find enough first downs there to accompany another long touchdown.
Best bet: Over 55.5 (-105)
Projected score: Oregon State 38, Montana 24
Best Bet: Oregon State vs. Montana o55.5 total points (-110)
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