Prediction, pick for Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja 2 at UFC 331

Tonight in Los Angeles, California, current UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van faces former Champion Alexandre Pantoja in the Main Event of UFC 331. This is a rematch of their first meeting at UFC 323, where the fight ended in 26 seconds after Pantoja suffered a significant injury. Coincidentally, the last time the promotion was in Los Angeles at Crypto.com Arena (formerly Staples Center), two Flyweight greats, Henry Cejudo and Demetrious Johnson, fought for the title. 

Check out my best bet for Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja 2 below.

Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline (+120)

Joshua Van, the pride of Myanmar who now calls Houston, Texas, home, has emerged as one of the top stars in the UFC. After winning the Flyweight title under unfortunate circumstances in December, Van didn’t let that control the narrative. Instead, he returned five months later and delivered another spectacular performance against top-tier contender Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328. Van beat Taira by fifth-round knockout and recorded 131 significant strikes and two knockdowns in that fight. Still, Van is out to prove he is the best Flyweight in the world, as he wasn’t able to do so at UFC 323. 

Enter Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja, who was on not just a good run but one of the best that the division has ever seen. Pantoja won five consecutive title fights, the second-most title wins in UFC Flyweight Championship history. Although a loss appears on his record, Pantoja’s latest defeat came only after he suffered an injury. His last legitimate loss came in July 2020. Since losing to Askar Askarov, Pantoja has transformed his skill set and become a completely new fighter. 

We’ve seen many big Flyweight title fights: Cejudo vs. Johnson, Figueiredo vs. Moreno, Pantoja vs. Moreno, and more. This rematch between Van and Pantoja joins that elite group, with a young champion defending the title against the second-best Flyweight Champion in history. Because the first fight lasted only 26 seconds, the rematch is more anticipated, as we never really saw the two face off. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Van is the favorite at -142, with the former champion as a +120 underdog. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds, with the over at +140 and the under at -180. Van is also +165 to win by knockout, as Pantoja is +275 to score a submission. Before the first matchup between them, Pantoja was a -205 favorite while Van was a +170 underdog. 

This is an interesting matchup: Van excels on the feet, while Pantoja does his best work on the ground. Van averages 8.43 significant strikes per minute with a 57 percent striking accuracy. That is compared to Pantoja’s 4.38 significant strikes per minute at a 50 percent rate. Pantoja lands 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47 percent takedown accuracy. Something Pantoja possesses that doesn’t show up in the statistics is his wealth of championship experience. Van has beaten elite fighters in the past but not on Pantoja’s level. If Pantoja slows Van down and gets takedowns early, he should be able to find success. As the odds suggest, this is an extremely close fight, but I give the edge to the seasoned veteran with more big-fight experience.