Bulldogs HC Matt Entz stayed with Jayden Mandal at quarterback after USC shut out Fresno State 39-0 in their opener, and Mandal repaid him with a sterling 23 completions on 26 attempts against Sacramento State last week. He threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns in that 49-3 win. I clearly underestimated how much Fresno could recover against a less imposing defense. Entz, to his credit, let his young quarterback work through the miserable opener; now he takes him to San Jose State for the Valley Trophy. Should be a good one here in the late slate. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the San Jose State Spartans and the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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San Jose State vs. Fresno State prediction, preview
Entz’s players earned those touchdowns, too. Fresno forced only one turnover and drove at least 54 yards on all six touchdown possessions. Bryson Donelson ran for 102 yards and three scores; Josiah Freeman and Ezekiel Avit each reached 100 receiving yards. Avit caught two passes, Freeman six. Fresno could score last week in a just single play or via a succession of completions; oh, and the Bulldogs also rushed for 193 yards. Mandal and Donelson should trouble San Jose State considerably more than I’d have anticipated a week ago.
San Jose State has protected Luke Weaver through 107 pass attempts, allowing two sacks, just 1.8% of attempts. USC recorded only one of those. I’d put some faith in the Spartans’ protection, while treating their offensive production against the Trojans more cautiously. San Jose State with six yards per play in that game against Fresno’s 2.6; the Spartans, however, scored 23 of their 26 points in the fourth quarter. USC had led 28-0 at halftime.
Against Cal Poly last week, Weaver completed eight passes to Carson Clark and seven to Cooper Hoch, and Jabari Bates carried 27 times for 163 yards. Ken Niumatalolo has leaned more heavily on the running game this season: San Jose State has recorded 104 rushes against 107 pass attempts, after finishing last year with 317 and 490, respectively. Bates should keep carrying into the second half of a competitive game. I like Niumatalolo’s chances of sustaining drives with his quarterback taking so few sacks and his back handling that much work.
Fresno State vs. San Jose State pick, best bet
Cal Poly also made San Jose State defend all evening. The Mustangs tied the game at 20 early in the fourth quarter, and the Spartans intercepted two passes in the red zone. Entz can hand Donelson the ball down there; I’d expect Fresno to finish more of those possessions. Fresno’s defenders held Sacramento State to three conversions on 13 third downs, meanwhile. I have the Bulldogs reaching 30 points and forcing enough punts to win, although San Jose State should resist far more convincingly than the Hornets.
I’ll take San Jose State plus-6.5, projecting Fresno to win 30-27. After the second red-zone interception against Cal Poly, Weaver led an 80-yard touchdown drive; his offense still had to travel most of the field. He should have time to find Clark and Hoch again, while Bates occupies Fresno’s front. Mandal and Donelson can score their share. I still see Weaver being the one to decide the way this rivalry ends. Valley Trophy, ho!
Best bet: San Jose State +6.5 (-110)
Projected score: Fresno State 30, San Jose State 27
Best Bet: San Jose State +6.5 (-110) vs. Fresno State
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