Billy Napier takes James Madison to California with two wins, 107 points, and an injured starting quarterback. Camden Coleman should start again as JC Evans recovers, according to this week’s JMU reporting. At Richmond, Coleman won 13 of his 14 starts; after Saturday’s 87-3 demolition of Wagner, he has another. Plenty of experience, then. For his first start against an FBS opponent, he’ll make the longest regular-season trip in JMU history. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the San Diego State Aztecs and the James Madison Dukes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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SDSU vs. JMU prediction, preview
SDSU’s defense held UCLA scoreless through halftime last week, then surrendered three touchdowns on possessions the Bruins began with good field position. Across eight possessions starting on their own side of midfield, UCLA scored just seven points, however. Give the Aztecs considerable credit for defending those longer fields, particularly against UCLA, who’s fifth among 68 Power 4 teams in opponent-adjusted rushing offense through Week 2.
JMU had themselves some stalled drives at Liberty, scoring on its first four series and punting on its next four. Evans contributed 69 rushing yards to that 20-13 win, and Napier now has to redistribute some of that work while he’s shelved. I anticipate fewer designed quarterback carries and more aggressive pursuit of the backs from San Diego State’s linebackers. Coleman can still keep the ball himself—he topped 300 rushing yards at Richmond in 2024—and JMU may need him to break off a few in order to get the win.
For San Diego State, getting their own quarterback to sustain a drive has proved rather more difficult. Jayden Denegal slashed an abysmal six-of-17 passes for 45 yards at UCLA, and San Diego State punted on seven of 11 possessions. He threw his only touchdown when the game was well out of contention, with just 2:28 remaining on the clock. JMU’s defense just held Liberty to 91 rushing yards on 38 attempts, with no gain longer than 10. Which is to say: Against a similarly stubborn front Saturday, Denegal will have to convert third downs with his arm, and he only converted six throws last weekend.
JMU vs. SDSU pick, best bet
JMU linebacker Gannon Weathersby still hadn’t fully recovered from his knee injury when Napier discussed him this week, so I’d allow San Diego State more rushing success than Liberty managed. And when the Aztecs punt, they’ll kick to Michael Scott, who returned two for touchdowns against Wagner. JMU scored on a blocked punt, too. Lewis has already watched opponents gain 14 yards per punt return across six attempts; Scott will test the coverage again.
Under 46.5 for me, with San Diego State winning 23-17. I’ve allowed for one short-field touchdown in that projection. Coleman should move JMU in stretches, but I expect the Aztecs to force more third downs than Wagner did, and their own quarterback has scarcely sustained an FBS scoring drive himself. With Weathersby still recovering, I lean toward Lewis getting a little more from his running game after halftime. I’ll take the home team to grind through a close one. No one likes to sweat out a late-night Saturday slate under, but alas. We ride.
Best bet: Under 46.5 (-110)
Projected score: San Diego State 23, James Madison 17
Best Bet: San Diego State vs. James Madison u46.5 total points (-110)
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