Missouri has protected Austin Simmons well enough to survive difficult afternoons. Georgia can make the stretches between those clean pockets miserable. The Tigers rank eighth nationally in sack rate allowed but 104th in offensive success rate, a combination that leaves Simmons upright while the chains keep demanding something better. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Missouri Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Georgia vs. Missouri prediction, preview
Jamal Roberts will carry much of that burden. His 1,071 rushing yards and nine touchdowns establish the workload Georgia must address first; Simmons has contributed 18 touchdown passes against only two interceptions, and Cayden Lee has collected 62 receptions for 835 yards. Missouri possesses players who can finish a drive once it develops. Moving consistently through the Bulldogs’ front is the larger problem.
Georgia has surrendered 83.8 rushing yards per game and recorded 31 sacks. Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson have combined for 18 tackles for loss and nine sacks, with the interior keeping both linebackers involved around the ball. Last week, Ole Miss entered with five sacks allowed all season and surrendered five more to Georgia. The Bulldogs have recently found ways to collapse protections that had held up elsewhere.
Missouri’s 40.2% offensive success rate trails Georgia’s 51.7% by more than 11 percentage points. The Bulldogs also produce explosive plays on 16.6% of snaps, ranking fourth nationally, against a Missouri defense ranked 90th in explosive-play prevention. That gap could become punishing once a couple of short Missouri possessions bring Gunner Stockton back onto the field with room to exploit the secondary.
Stockton has completed 70.9% of his passes, throwing 20 touchdowns and four interceptions. Georgia has scored touchdowns on 34 of 44 red-zone trips and converted 52.4% of third downs. These are useful complements: the Bulldogs can extend a possession when the first two plays accomplish little, then finish it after the field contracts. Talyn Taylor’s six receiving touchdowns supply another concern for a defense that cannot afford to lose receivers behind it.
Missouri vs. Georgia pick, best bet
Georgia does have a serious complication at center. Drew Bobo is doubtful after the Bulldogs used the same starting offensive line through their first nine games. Cortez Smith and Malachi Toliver are possible replacements, and Missouri has held seven opponents below 100 rushing yards. That combination can slow Georgia’s interior runs and force Stockton to shoulder more of the protection communication. It is the strongest reason to project the Bulldogs below their 41.1-point season average.
Simmons’ ball security should prevent this from becoming entirely dependent on short fields, and Lee can win enough targets to assemble a pair of scoring drives. Georgia’s advantage in ordinary down-to-down execution remains large enough to separate. I expect Stockton to locate the explosive completions Missouri has struggled to prevent, while Cole and Wilson repeatedly force the Tigers to restart their work from behind schedule. Georgia by 20 covers the quoted number with room for the offensive-line disruption.
Best bet: Georgia -16.5 (-108)
Projected score: Georgia 34, Missouri 14.
Best Bet: Georgia -16.5 (-110) vs. Missouri
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