#24 Boise State (8-1, 5-0) is seeking its second-ever trip to the College Football Playoff. If the Broncos are going to reach the postseason, they’ll need to win out over the next three weeks. Keeping that in mind, Saturday’s matchup at Albertsons Stadium has trap game potential. Oregon State (5-4, 3-2) doesn’t have the greatest record. With that being said, the Beavers aren’t lacking in offensive firepower. Can the visitors play spoiler in this massive Pac-12 showdown?
The Broncos are listed as 16.5-point favorites over the Beavers, with the total set at O/U 64.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Oregon State vs. Boise State matchup.
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Oregon State vs. Boise State prediction, preview
If the Beavers are going to reach the Pac-12 championship game, tonight’s contest is a must-win. Fortunately for Oregon State, there’s always a chance with Braden Atkinson at quarterback. Through nine games, the gunslinger has notched a Division I-best 3,129 passing yards. In addition, the sophomore has racked up 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Putting up massive statistics through the air is easier when there’s a superstar wide receiver on the roster. Jesse Legree has been Atkinson’s partner in crime, posting a whopping 1,209 yards and 14 touchdowns on 61 receptions. As a unit, OSU is averaging 38.0 points per game. That’s 13th-best in all of college football.
With that being said, Atkinson (hand) won’t be suiting up for this Week 11 matchup. In his place, it will likely be Maalik Murphy serving as Oregon State’s QB1. He’s accounted for 156 yards, two total touchdowns and one interception over 19 pass attempts this season.
With offensive numbers such as those, you’d think Oregon State would have more wins. However, the Beavers have played shoddy defense all season. They’ve allowed 30+ points to five different opponents this season. That includes a combined 80 points over the past two weeks against Texas State and Fresno State, both losses. OSU has been especially bad on the ground, surrendering 4.63 yards per carry to its opponents. That doesn’t bode well heading into Saturday’s matchup with one of the nation’s most potent rushing attacks.
Speaking of which, Boise State loves pounding the rock. This team is churning out 5.62 yards per carry, sixth-best in all of college football. Dylan Riley leads this backfield, and the nation, with 1,241 rushing yards. To boot, he’s reached the end zone 13 different times this season. Backup Sire Gaines has also chipped in with 418 yards and five touchdowns of his own.
The Beavers aren’t the only squad dealing with some uncertainty under center. Quarterback Maddux Madsen (knee) is listed as questionable to play. However, given the high stakes tonight, there’s a decent chance the senior takes the field. Over eight games this season, he’s thrown for 1,681 yards, 15 touchdowns and one interception. Even if Madsen can’t go on Saturday, backup Max Cutforth can keep this offense moving.
Defensively, the Broncos aren’t world-beaters. Still, they’ve offered far more resistance than the Beavers this season. Teams are only gaining 377.2 yards per game against Boise State, second-best in the Pac-12. BSU has also racked up the conference’s second-most sacks (22.0) and second-most tackles for loss (51.0). This defensive front will be eager to lay down some hits on Murphy this evening.
Oregon State vs. Boise State Pick, Best Bet
Even if Atkinson were active, this would be a challenge for the Beavers. The loss of college football’s most prolific passer is near-impossible to come back from. That’s especially true on the road against a ranked opponent. As for Boise State, an efficient running game should keep the pressure off of Madsen while controlling time of possession. It’s difficult to envision Oregon State covering the spread this evening against a highly motivated Broncos squad.
Best Bet: Boise State -16.5 (-112)
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